2025 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview:
#1 Duke vs. #1 Houston (Saturday, 8:49 p.m., CBS)
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
Thanks to his elite recruiting of high school prospects and crafty use of the NCAA transfer portal, Duke coach Jon Scheyer will bring one of the most dominant teams in modern college basketball history to the Final Four in San Antonio.
Winning two more games won’t be easy for his mighty Blue Devils (35-3), though, because the other three teams in the national semifinals — Auburn (32-5), Florida (34-4) and Houston (34-4) — are absolutely stacked, too.
Everyone has heard by now that this is the first Final Four since 2008 that includes all four #1 seeds. It’s mentioned less frequently that this is only the second time in almost a half-century of seeding the field that the top four teams have been the last four standing.
All four semifinalists are led by a 2024-25 All-American. Auburn forward Johni Broome, Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. and Duke forward Cooper Flagg were consensus first-team selections in those recent voting results. Houston guard LJ Cryer was a consensus third-team honoree.
All four semifinalists also boast a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense in Ken Pomeroy’s season-long efficiency rankings. In many years, there is only a single squad that fits that rare combination.
In the nightcap on Saturday, college basketball’s most efficient offense (Duke) will encounter the sport’s most efficient defense (Houston).
Veteran coach Kelvin Sampson, now in his 11th season with the Cougars, has had brilliant defensive squads many times during his tenures at Washington State, Oklahoma, Indiana and Houston. This is his 20th trip to the NCAA Tournament as a head coach and his third appearance in the Final Four, after previous visits with the Sooners (2002) and Cougars (2021).
What’s extremely different — and even more dangerous — about Sampson’s team this year is that it also shoots 3-pointers as well as any team in the country. The Cougars’ 39.7 percent accuracy ranks second nationally among 364 Division One teams, and all three players in their starting backcourt — Cryer, point guard Milos Uzan (an NBA prospect) and wing guard Emanuel Sharp — shoot better than 41 percent from long range.
Houston’s style will offer a stark contrast to what the Blue Devils experienced in their last three NCAA Tournament games. Baylor, Arizona and Alabama all were much better offensively than defensively, and each ultimately failed to slow down or limit Duke’s multi-dimensional attack in any way.
Unlike the Wildcats and Crimson Tide, the Cougars also prefer to play at an extremely slow, Virginia-like tempo, and they have an extraordinary ability to create lots of turnovers while committing few themselves. That approach limits possessions for both teams and maximizes the importance of each trip down the floor.
BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364 teams):
Houston — 2/2/4/3
Duke — 1/1/5/1
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364 teams):
Houston — 10/1
Duke — 1/4
2024-25 Houston Cougars
(34-4, 19-1 Big 12/1st; through April 4)
NCAA TOURNAMENT RESULTS
#1 Houston 78, #16 SIUE 40
#1 Houston 81, #8 Gonzaga 76
#1 Houston 62, #4 Purdue 60
#1 Houston 69, #2 Tennessee 50
STARTERS (stats for entire 2024-25 season)
PG Milos Uzan, Jr. (6-4/190) — 2024 Oklahoma transfer (2-year starter)
32 mpg, 12 ppg, 3 rpg, 46% FG, 78% FT, 45% threes, 167/54 ATO, 36 steals
G LJ Cryer*, Gr. (6-1/200) — 2023 Baylor transfer (3rd-team All-Big 12)
32 mpg, 15 ppg, 2 rpg, 41% FG, 92% FT, 42% threes, 77/39 ATO, 34 steals
G Emanuel Sharp*, r-Jr. (6-3/210) — HS signee (top-150 in Class of 2021)
27 mpg, 13 ppg, 3 rpg, 43% FG, 88% FT, 42% threes, 30/28 ATO, 49 steals
F Joseph Tugler, So. (6-8/230) — HS signee (top-75 in Class of 2023)
22 mpg, 6 ppg, 6 rpg, 52% FG, 54% FT, 27% threes, 35/36 ATO, 73 blocks, 35 steals
F J’Wan Roberts*, Gr. (6-8/235) — HS signee (top-150 in Class of 2019)
30 mpg, 11 ppg, 6 rpg, 51% FG, 63% FT, 0 threes, 61/56 ATO, 23 blocks, 35 steals
KEY RESERVES (stats for entire 2024-25 season)
G Terrance Arceneaux, r-So. (6-6/205) — HS signee (top-50 in Class of 2022)
21 mpg, 7 ppg, 3 rpg, 45% FG, 73% FT, 35% threes, 29/25 ATO, 36 steals
G Mylik Wilson, Gr. (6-3/175) — 2022 Texas Tech transfer (backup)
18 mpg, 6 ppg, 4 rpg, 44% FG, 71% FT, 36% threes, 54/32 ATO, 47 steals
F Ja’Vier Francis*, Sr. (6-8/235) — HS signee (top-150 in Class of 2021)
16 mpg, 5 ppg, 4 rpg, 60% FG, 71% FT, 0 threes, 6/34 ATO, 34 blocks, 16 steals
*—2023-24 starter (started at least 50% of Houston’s games last season)
2024-25 Duke Blue Devils
(35-3, 19-1 ACC/1st; through April 4)
NCAA TOURNAMENT RESULTS
#1 Duke 93, #16 Mount St. Mary’s 49
#1 Duke 89, #9 Baylor 66
#1 Duke 100, #4 Arizona 93
#1 Duke 85, #2 Alabama 65
STARTERS (stats for entire 2024-25 season)
PG Sion James, Gr. (6-6/220) — 2024 Tulane transfer (4-year starter)
26 mpg, 9 ppg, 4 rpg, 52% FG, 81% FT, 42% threes, 115/45 ATO, 10 blocks, 32 steals
G Tyrese Proctor*, Jr. (6-6/183) — HS signee (top-30 in Class of 2022)
30 mpg, 13 ppg, 3 rpg, 46% FG, 69% FT, 41% threes, 84/39 ATO, 4 blocks, 31 steals
G/F Kon Knueppel, Fr. (6-7/217) — HS signee (top-25 in Class of 2024)
30 mpg, 14 ppg, 4 rpg, 48% FG, 91% FT, 40% threes, 105/53 ATO, 6 blocks, 39 steals
G/F Cooper Flagg, Fr. (6-9/205) — HS signee (#1 in Class of 2024)
30 mpg, 19 ppg, 8 rpg, 48% FG, 83% FT, 37% threes, 151/77 ATO, 47 blocks, 50 steals
C Khaman Maluach, Fr. (7-2/250) — HS signee (top-10 in Class of 2024)
21 mpg, 9 ppg, 7 rpg, 71% FG, 76% FT, 25% threes, 18/31 ATO, 50 blocks, 7 steals
KEY RESERVES (stats for entire 2024-25 season)
F Maliq Brown, Jr. (6-9/222) — 2024 Syracuse transfer (starter)
16 mpg, 2 ppg, 4 rpg, 64% FG, 38% FT, 33% threes, 37/22 ATO, 9 blocks, 31 steals
F Mason Gillis, Gr. (6-6/225) — 2024 Purdue transfer (Big Ten 6th Man of Year)
15 mpg, 4 ppg, 3 rpg, 42% FG, 83% FT, 34% threes, 30/14 ATO, 0 blocks, 17 steals
G/F Isaiah Evans, Fr. (6-6/175) — HS signee (top-25 in Class of 2024)
14 mpg, 7 ppg, 1 rpg, 43% FG, 81% FT, 42% threes, 18/16 ATO, 3 blocks, 6 steals
G Caleb Foster, So. (6-5/202) — HS signee (top-25 in Class of 2023)
14 mpg, 5 ppg, 2 rpg, 42% FG, 67% FT, 34% threes, 53/32 ATO, 3 blocks, 23 steals
C Patrick Ngongba II, Fr. (6-11/250) — HS signee (top-30 in Class of 2024)
11 mpg, 4 ppg, 3 rpg, 72% FG, 73% FT, 0 threes, 22/7 ATO, 16 blocks, 11 steals
Departures from 2023-24: PG Jaylen Blakes (Jr./transfer/Stanford), C Kyle Filipowski* (So./early NBA entry/Utah Jazz), WG Jared McCain* (Fr./early NBA entry/Philadelphia 76ers), BF Mark Mitchell* (So./transfer/Missouri), BF TJ Power (Fr./transfer/Virginia), C Christian Reeves (r-Fr./transfer/Clemson), WG Jeremy Roach* (Sr./transfer/Baylor), WG Jaden Schutt (r-Fr./transfer/Virginia Tech), BF Sean Stewart (Fr./transfer/Ohio State), C Ryan Young (Sr.)
*—2023-24 starter (started at least 50% of Duke’s games last season)
