2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Duke vs. Mount St. Mary’s (Friday, 2:50 pm)

2025 NCAA Tournament 1st-Round Preview:
Duke vs. Mount St. Mary’s (Friday, 2:50 p.m., CBS)

By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network

Let’s be candid here: Don’t even think about it.

Yes, it’s true that there are now two examples of a #16 seed defeating a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and that both history-making surprises happened within the past decade. In 2018, Maryland-Baltimore County shocked Virginia. In 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson stunned Purdue.

This is different.

Duke (31-3), the #1 seed in the East this year, is one of the most successful programs in the history of the NCAA Tournament and a perfect 14-0 all-time against #16 seeds. Mount St. Mary’s (23-12), the Blue Devils’ opponent on Friday (2:50 p.m., CBS) in Raleigh, has never won a Round of 64 game in its history as a Division One program.

The Blue Devils play in the Atlantic Coast Conference, one of the five power leagues, and is #1 in both the national polls and many (e.g., BPI, KenPom, NET) analytics-style rankings. The Mountaineers play in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, which ranked 25th among the nation’s 31 conferences this season.

Most importantly, beyond that multi-layered history, and unlike those recent Virginia and Purdue teams, this year’s Duke squad has by far the most NBA-caliber talent — including possible lottery picks in freshmen Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel — of any team in the college ranks.

For the Mountaineers, then, this game truly projects as an Everest-like climb.

Whereas the primary question surrounding Duke is the health status of Flagg, who missed almost all of the Blue Devils’ three-game run to the ACC Tournament title after suffering a scary-looking ankle injury, Mount St. Mary’s has an even longer list of health-related complications.

Three of the Mountaineers’ top 10 players (see below), including star guard Carmelo Pacheco, are expected to be unavailable for their game against Duke. All three also missed the MAAC Tournament, so there has been some time to adjust.

Veteran forward Dola Adebayo, a second-team All-MAAC selection, has been the Mountaineers’ best player this season. He is the team’s leading scorer (13.2 ppg), top shotblocker (1.1 bpg) and one of its best rebounders (6.9 rpg).

While Mount St. Mary’s has won three “First Four” games in its history, including Wednesday’s 83-72 victory over American, it is 0-4 all-time in Round of 64 matchups. The Mountaineers’ losses to #1 seeds Kentucky (1995), Michigan State (1999), North Carolina (2008) and Villanova (2017) in those contests came by an average of 32 points.

BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364 teams):
Mount St. Mary’s — 235/238/184/236
Duke — 1/1/5/1

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364 teams):
Mount St. Mary’s — 279/183
Duke — 3/4

2024-25 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
(23-12, 12-8 MAAC/4th; through March 20)

STARTERS

PG Xavier Lipscomb, Gr. (6-2/195) — 2022 Radford transfer (part-time starter)
34 mpg, 7 ppg, 4 rpg, 35% FG, 74% FT, 34% threes, 153/77 ATO, 5 blocks, 31 steals

G Dallas Hobbs, So. (6-1/175) — HS signee (unranked in Class of 2023)
28 mpg, 13 ppg, 4 rpg, 38% FG, 79% FT, 33% threes, 97/79 ATO, 1 block, 26 steals

G Javon Ervin, Jr. (6-3/200) — Peninsula CC transfer (starter)
16 mpg, 5 ppg, 2 rpg, 35% FG, 68% FT, 28% threes, 34/49 ATO, 4 blocks, 11 steals

F Dola Adebayo, r-Jr. (6-8/210) — HS signee (unranked in Class of 2021)
29 mpg, 13 ppg, 7 rpg, 52% FG, 74% FT, 32% threes, 36/80 ATO, 37 blocks, 32 steals

F Jedy Cordilia*, Sr. (6-9/210) — HS signee (unranked in Class of 2021)
30 mpg, 10 ppg, 7 rpg, 61% FG, 70% FT, 29% threes, 36/59 ATO, 27 blocks, 15 steals

KEY RESERVES

G Arlandus Keyes, Jr. (6-2/173) — 2024 Ellsworth CC transfer (starter)
19 mpg, 7 ppg, 3 rpg, 37% FG, 77% FT, 35% threes, 61/52 ATO, 7 blocks, 35 steals

G Malcolm Dread, r-Jr. (6-4/210) — 2023 Richmond transfer (backup)
7 mpg, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, 50% FG, 0 FT, 54% threes, 4/7 ATO, 0 blocks, 1 steal

G Carmelo Pacheco, So. (6-5/190) — 2024 UVa Wise transfer (INJURED)
28 mpg, 10 ppg, 2 rpg, 47% FG, 82% FT, 46% threes, 40/11 ATO, 3 blocks, 18 steals

F Terrell Ard Jr., Sr. (6-7/200) — 2023 Presbyterian transfer (INJURED)
24 mpg, 11 ppg, 7 rpg, 53% FG, 71% FT, 17% threes, 46/43 ATO, 9 blocks, 23 steals

F Abdou Khadre Kebe, Fr. (6-7/170) — 2024 international signee (INJURED)
11 mpg, 3 ppg, 1 rpg, 31% FG, 69% FT, 24% threes, 13/29 ATO, 1 block, 17 steals

*—2023-24 starter (started at least 50% of Mountaineers’ games last season)

2024-25 Duke Blue Devils
(31-3, 19-1 ACC/1st; through March 20)

STARTERS

PG Sion James, Gr. (6-6/220) — 2024 Tulane transfer (4-year starter)
25 mpg, 9 ppg, 4 rpg, 53% FG, 82% FT, 42% threes, 105/41 ATO, 10 blocks, 30 steals

G Tyrese Proctor*, Jr. (6-6/183) — HS signee (top-30 in Class of 2022)
30 mpg, 12 ppg, 3 rpg, 43% FG, 70% FT, 38% threes, 72/35 ATO, 4 blocks, 28 steals

G/F Kon Knueppel, Fr. (6-7/217) — HS signee (top-25 in Class of 2024)
31 mpg, 14 ppg, 4 rpg, 47% FG, 91% FT, 39% threes, 92/47 ATO, 6 blocks, 34 steals

G/F Cooper Flagg, Fr. (6-9/205) — HS signee (#1 in Class of 2024)
30 mpg, 19 ppg, 8 rpg, 49% FG, 83% FT, 37% threes, 131/69 ATO, 40 blocks, 49 steals

C Khaman Maluach, Fr. (7-2/250) — HS signee (top-10 in Class of 2024)
21 mpg, 8 ppg, 7 rpg, 69% FG, 75% FT, 20% threes, 15/26 ATO, 42 blocks, 6 steals

KEY RESERVES

F Mason Gillis, Gr. (6-6/225) — 2024 Purdue transfer (Big Ten 6th Man of Year)
15 mpg, 4 ppg, 3 rpg, 41% FG, 81% FT, 34% threes, 27/14 ATO, 0 blocks, 16 steals

G/F Isaiah Evans, Fr. (6-6/175) — HS signee (top-25 in Class of 2024)
15 mpg, 8 ppg, 1 rpg, 45% FG, 81% FT, 44% threes, 18/16 ATO, 3 blocks, 6 steals

G Caleb Foster, So. (6-5/202) — HS signee (top-25 in Class of 2023)
14 mpg, 5 ppg, 2 rpg, 40% FG, 66% FT, 31% threes, 46/30 ATO, 3 blocks, 21 steals

C Patrick Ngongba II, Fr. (6-11/250) — HS signee (top-30 in Class of 2024)
10 mpg, 4 ppg, 3 rpg, 70% FG, 70% FT, 0 threes, 15/6 ATO, 11 blocks, 9 steals

F Maliq Brown, Jr. (6-9/222) — 2024 Syracuse transfer (INJURED)
17 mpg, 3 ppg, 4 rpg, 64% FG, 38% FT, 33% threes, 36/22 ATO, 9 blocks, 30 steals

Departures from 2023-24: PG Jaylen Blakes (Jr./transfer/Stanford), C Kyle Filipowski* (So./early NBA entry/Utah Jazz), WG Jared McCain* (Fr./early NBA entry/Philadelphia 76ers), BF Mark Mitchell* (So./transfer/Missouri), BF TJ Power (Fr./transfer/Virginia), C Christian Reeves (r-Fr./transfer/Clemson), WG Jeremy Roach* (Sr./transfer/Baylor), WG Jaden Schutt (r-Fr./transfer/Virginia Tech), BF Sean Stewart (Fr./transfer/Ohio State), C Ryan Young (Sr.)

*—2023-24 starter (started at least 50% of Duke’s games last season)