National “Three To See,” Game Two

Florida (1-2) at #4 Miami (3-0), Sat., 7:30 p.m. (ABC)

There is an absolutely wild set of circumstances surrounding this game.

The Florida-Miami clash was played every single year for decades, but not nearly as often since the mid-1980s, right around the time that Miami went from a no-name program to one that won four national championships in a nine-year period — first under Howard Schnellenberger in 1983, then under Jimmy Johnson in 1987, then two more under Dennis Erickson.

Since 1987 — that’s almost 40 years ago now — the Gators and Hurricanes have played only eight times. Miami has won six of those eight, including last year in Gainesville, which was the first time Florida coach Billy Napier and Canes coach Mario Cristobal went head-to-head in this rivalry.

Although Florida is a three-time national championship program — once under Steve Spurrier, twice under Urban Meyer — the Gators haven’t been great very often since Meyer stepped away 15 years ago. Similarly, although Miami is a five-time national championship program — most recently under Larry Coker in 2001 — the Canes haven’t been great very often since they joined the ACC in 2004.

The expectations are high for every coach, almost every year, at these two schools, and both Napier and Cristobal are in their fourth season.

Both coaches have had mediocre results so far, with one exception — Cristobal broke through last year, thanks largely to sensational quarterback Cam Ward (now starting for the NFL’s Tennessee Titans), who led the Canes to a 10-3 campaign. Napier, on the other hand, hasn’t broken through with a big season yet, and many consider him on the Hot Seat after the Gators’ disappointing 1-2 start this year.

Beyond the Hot Seat conversation that surrounds Napier, there’s another circus-like sideshow around Florida quarterback DJ Lagway, who threw five interceptions — including a back-breaking pick-six — in last week’s 20-10 loss at #3 LSU. The Gators also struggled offensively in their 18-16 home loss to South Florida, a team that Miami just mauled by a 49-12 margin.

Lagway, the 2023 National High School Player of the Year, went 6-1 as a starter last year for Florida as a true freshman, but he’s playing at almost 250 pounds now, isn’t much of a running threat, and has made a bunch of really bad decisions under pressure. Meanwhile, there’s talk in Gainesville that many UF players aren’t fully behind Lagway, who got a huge revenue-sharing deal in the offseason that may be impacting the team’s locker-room chemistry.

Miami, meanwhile, has looked like a much more well-rounded team than it was even during last year’s 10-3 campaign, when Ward often had to save the Canes in high-scoring shootouts.

This UM team already has defeated two ranked opponents, Notre Dame and South Florida, while giving up only 13 points per game during its 3-0 start.

Georgia transfer Carson Beck has been the opposite of Lagway for the Canes — accurate thrower, reliable decision-maker, strong leader, productive passer.

Florida (a seven-point underdog) actually does have a very stout defense, so there will be plenty of NFL-caliber talent on the field for both sides when the Canes have the ball, but the mood will be much different when the Gators are in possession and the Napier/Lagway combo is back under the heat lamp.

National “Three To See,” Game Three

#9 Illinois (3-0) at #19 Indiana (3-0), Sat., 7:30 p.m. (NBC)

This game is included partly because both teams are undefeated and ranked in the Top 25 — duh — but also partly because they’re great examples of middling programs that have become relevant on the national scene in back-to-back seasons after very long slumbers.

In North Carolina, college football fans often talk about how NC State and UNC — the state’s two large, public universities competing in a Power Four league — have not captured a conference title on the gridiron since 1979 and 1980, respectively. That’s a long time ago. If you’re 50 years old or younger, you probably don’t even remember those Wolfpack and Tar Heel title teams.

Well, Illinois has only one Big Ten football title since 1990, and Indiana — much better known for basketball (sound familiar?) — hasn’t won a Big Ten football championship since 1967. In addition, the Illini have had only four Top 25 finishes in football since 1990, and the Hoosiers have had only two Top 25 finishes since 1988.

Some of those numbers are even worse than the comparable numbers for UNC football and NC State football.

One aspect of the developing Illinois and Indiana stories that is much harder to duplicate has to do with money.

Over the past two decades, thanks largely to coast-to-coast conference expansion and football TV revenue, the Big Ten has become the wealthiest conference in America. Last year, for example, long-standing Big Ten members each received payments of more than $63 million from their league office. That number in the ACC was about $45 million per school. That’s an enormous gap.

Whereas the ACC was the wealthiest conference in America for most of the 1980s, 1990s and even early 2000s, those days are long gone, largely because the league’s football TV product doesn’t attract nearly as many eyeballs, overall, as the football TV products in the Big Ten and the SEC.

The other aspect of the Illinois and Indiana stories that’s very important to learn from is finding the right head coach.

Even as Illinois and Indiana got wealthier, they didn’t really take off as football programs until they hired Bret Bielema and Curt Cignetti, respectively. These were guys with really impressive, proven track records.

Bielema, an Illinois native, had great success over a seven-year period as the head coach at Wisconsin of the Big Ten. Cignetti had nothing but success at all three of his previous head coaching stops, include back-to-back Top 25 seasons at Elon in the FCS ranks, then three straight trips to the FCS playoff semifinals while at James Madison, which he then helped successfully transition to the FBS as a member of the Sun Belt Conference.

If you watch this year’s Illinois-Indiana game on NBC on Saturday night, keep these backdrop elements in mind. If it can happen there, it can happen here, too.

NOTE: For the in-state edition of our Week Four college football preview, including analysis on the highest-profile games, plus schedules and TV/streaming options for all 32 teams (FBS, FCS, Division Two, Division Three) in the Bold North State, please click HERE.