Goldilocks Principle In Effect
For UNC’s Road Trip To UCF
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
(last updated Sept. 19, 2025)
When 2-1 North Carolina visits 2-0 UCF on Saturday (3:30 p.m., FOX), the Goldilocks principle will be in effect.
How so?
Well, TCU (successful coach, top-notch quarterback, established culture, Big 12 contender) clearly was much too hot for the Tar Heels in their 2025 opener.
Then, Charlotte (first-year coach, inexperienced QB, lesser conference, low expectations) and Richmond (a Football Championship Subdivision opponent) were much too cold for the Tar Heels over the past two weeks.
Just as the Horned Frogs absolutely dominated Carolina (48-14), Carolina absolutely dominated both the 49ers (20-3) and the Spiders (41-6). In all three games, the better team was crystal-clear by the end of the first quarter.
If first-year UNC coach Bill Belichick had wanted to create a mid-September litmus test for his crew — magically conjuring an opponent not nearly as good as TCU, but one much more talented than Charlotte or Richmond — he might have created the 2025 UCF squad.
In so many ways, the Golden Knights (a seven-point favorite) are just right as a mid-September challenge for this year’s Tar Heels. In stark contrast to the tenor of Carolina’s first three games, either team is capable of defeating the other.
“This is kind of an interesting game,” Belichick said Tuesday.
UCF is another Power Four opponent, from the Big 12, but whereas TCU is considered a true contender in that league, the Golden Knights — first-year coach, few returning starters, QB complications, etc. — were picked by most to finish in the bottom half of the standings.
The Knights’ 2-0 start came against a couple of gridiron-style cupcakes, and they have just as many serious questions, uncertainties and early season concerns as the Heels do.
UCF needed 14 fourth-quarter points in its opener to win 17-10 and survive Jacksonville State, a Conference USA program that’s only two years removed from competing in the FCS ranks. Then the Knights hammered North Carolina A&T, a rebuilding FCS program with a first-year head coach, by a 68-7 margin that distorted the team’s statistical profile.
Carolina fans are well aware, by now, that the Tar Heels have 70 new players. Well, UCF has 63 new players.
“They have a lot of transfers,” Belichick said, “which, if anybody can relate to that, we can.”
UNC also has only three returning starters (senior cornerback Marcus Allen, sophomore guard Aidan Banfield, junior nickel back Kaleb Cost) serving as first-team players on offense or defense right now, an incredibly low number, even in the transfer portal era.
Guess what? UCF had only three returning starters (senior defensive end Nyjalik Kelly, senior defensive end Malachi Lawrence, senior left tackle Paul Rubelt) who served as first-team players on offense or defense in its first two games.
“The defensive line, they’ve got three guys that are really a problem,” Belichick said. “These are some tough matchups for us, so we’ll start getting ready for them and try to have a good week and be ready to go.”
Just as UNC has a well-known, first-year head coach who’s trying to relive some of his glory days, so do the Golden Knights.
The glory days of first-year UCF head coach Scott Frost actually came at UCF, Mack Brown-style, during Frost’s first tenure in Orlando. Frost originally coached the Knights for just two seasons (2016-17), and his second team (then in the American Conference) was the best in program history, finishing 13-0, winning the Peach Bowl and securing a top-10 postseason ranking.
Just as Belichick’s legendary National Football League career with the New England Patriots ended poorly, with losing seasons in three of his last four years there, Frost recently was humbled by his disastrous five-year head coaching tenure at Nebraska (his alma mater), in which he failed to post a single winning season from 2018-22.
The UNC-UCF parallels continue elsewhere on the teams’ depth charts.
Carolina fans have seen their new quarterback, South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez, make some helpful plays with his legs, but he’s been extremely inconsistent and often inaccurate or off-timing in the passing game.
“There’s a difference between anticipating the receiver being open and then seeing him open and then throwing him the ball,” Belichick said. “A lot of times it’s too late, and if you can anticipate the receiver creating separation and getting open, then you hit him. If you wait ‘til he gets open a lot of times, that window closes by the time you get him the ball.”
Both of UCF’s quarterbacks, Florida Atlantic transfer Cam Fancher (who was knocked out of the team’s opener with an injury) and Indiana transfer Tayven Jackson, fit the same mold — functional runners who can be hit-or-miss in the passing game.
Neither UNC nor UCF has exhibited dominant line play against a quality opponent this season, so this game likely will be decided by the usual things — big plays, turnovers, high-IQ football, poise under pressure, minimization of mistakes, and old-fashioned execution.
“Everything’s about UCF (this week) and what they do and how well they do it and how we can compete against it,” Belichick said. “And then there’ll be a point when the page will turn there, and you’re into another chapter.”
The UNC-UCF winner will gain confidence and — with three victories — be halfway to bowl eligibility, with the more difficult part of its schedule still ahead. The losing team will face a more complicated road to the postseason.
These just-right Goldilocks games often mean that much.
