ACC Bubble Watch (Feb. 24):
Three NCAA Tournament Bids,
Three More Right On The Edge
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
In the 1980s, when the Atlantic Coast Conference consisted of only eight schools, the league’s teams sometimes collectively earned only four invitations to the NCAA Tournament, but it still was considered a successful season.
This year, with the ACC an 18-school monstrosity for the first time, only four bids to the Big Dance would be a truly unprecedented disaster.
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 (now 68) teams in 1985, the ACC has never failed to get at least one-third of its teams into the bracket. The league hit exactly that threshold — five of 15 — in each of the past three seasons. At other times, the league’s baseline was three of nine, or four of 12.
With less than two weeks remaining in the 2024-25 regular season, only three ACC teams — Duke, Clemson and Louisville — can feel comfortable with their NCAA Tournament projections. Four more schools — Wake Forest, North Carolina, SMU and Pitt (fading fast) — are on or near the NCAA bubble, and in each case they’re running out of opportunities to upgrade their résumé.
A bubble team such as Arkansas (16-11, 5-9), which plays in the top-ranked Southeastern Conference, still has upcoming regular-season games against highly regarded Mississippi State and Vanderbilt squads. Meanwhile, between now and the ACC Tournament, the ACC’s four bubble teams each have at most one opportunity remaining for a high-impact victory.
Reminder: These are NOT predictions of future results/standings but rather a reflection of the teams’ “body of work” in games already played (through Feb. 23).
1. Duke (24-3, 15-1 ACC)
Head Coach: Jon Scheyer, 37 years old, third season with Blue Devils, 2 NCAA Tournaments
Best Wins: 84-78 vs. Auburn, 69-55 at Arizona, 76-65 at Louisville, 110-67 over Illinois (n), 63-56 at Wake Forest, 89-62 at SMU, 76-47 vs. Pitt, 87-70 vs. UNC, 68-47 vs. George Mason, 106-70 vs. Stanford
Losses: 77-72 to Kentucky (n), 75-72 to Kansas (n), 77-71 at Clemson
Remaining Regular-Season Games: at Miami (2/25), FSU (3/1), Wake Forest (3/3), at UNC (3/8)
BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 1/1/5/2
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 2/4
Starters: G Sion James, G Tyrese Proctor, G Kon Knueppel, F Cooper Flagg, C Khaman Maluach
Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament (1 seed)
Duke’s 2022 coaching transition from Mike Krzyzewski to Jon Scheyer, who was only 34 years old at the time, has gone incredibly smoothly. The Blue Devils won the ACC championship in Scheyer’s first season, made the Elite Eight last year and are the favorites to claim the ACC regular-season title, the ACC Tournament (official) championship and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament this year. Freshman forward Cooper Flagg may be the National Player of the Year.
2. Clemson (22-5, 14-2 ACC)
Head Coach: Brad Brownell, 56 years old, 15th season with Tigers, 7 NCAA Tournaments (UNCW-2/Wright State-1/Clemson-4)
Best Wins: 77-71 vs. Duke, 70-66 vs. Kentucky, 79-69 at SMU, 73-62 vs. Wake Forest, 85-65 vs. UNC, 78-75 at Pitt, 75-67 over Penn State (n), 85-71 vs. Stanford, 70-55 over San Francisco (n), 72-46 at Florida State
Losses: 84-71 to Boise State (n), 87-82 vs. Memphis, 91-88 at South Carolina, 74-64 at Louisville, 89-86 vs. Georgia Tech
Remaining Regular-Season Games: Notre Dame (2/26), at UVa (3/1), at Boston College (3/5), Virginia Tech (3/8)
BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 16/19/16/22
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 16/26
Starters: G Jaeden Zackery, G Chase Hunter, F Chauncey Wiggins, F Ian Schieffelin, C Viktor Lakhin
Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament (6 seed)
After making only two NCAA Tournament appearances in his first 10 seasons at Clemson, 15th-year coach Brad Brownell appears poised to take the Tigers to the Big Dance for the third time in five years. Home-grown stars Chase Hunter (a sixth-year senior) and Ian Schieffelin (a fourth-year senior) have blended extremely well with transfer additions Jaeden Zackery (Boston College) and Viktor Lakhin (Cincinnati), who were multi-year starters at their previous schools.
3. Louisville (21-6, 14-2 ACC)
Head Coach: Pat Kelsey, 49 years old, first season with Cardinals, 5^ NCAA Tournaments (Winthrop-3/Charleston-2)
Best Wins: 74-64 vs. Clemson, 79-70 over West Virginia (n), 98-73 at SMU, 82-78 at Pitt, 72-59 vs. Wake Forest, 83-70 vs. UNC, 90-76 at FSU, 89-61 over Indiana (n)
Losses: 77-55 vs. Tennessee, 69-64 to Oklahoma (n), 86-63 vs. Ole Miss, 76-65 vs. Duke, 93-85 at Kentucky, 77-70 at Georgia Tech
Remaining Regular-Season Games: at Virginia Tech (2/25), Pitt (3/1), Cal (3/5), Stanford (3/8)
BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 32/24/18/25
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 22/30
Starters: PG Chucky Hepburn, G Reyne Smith, G Terrence Edwards, F J’Vonne Hadley, F James Scott
Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament (7 seed)
First-year Louisville coach Pat Kelsey is a strong ACC Coach of the Year candidate (along with Scheyer and Brownell), in part because he had to build his entire 13-man roster from scratch, after every scholarship player transferred out in the aftermath of the disastrous two-year tenure of his predecessor, Kenny Payne. Senior point guard Chucky Hepburn, formerly a three-year starter at Wisconsin, has been absolutely brilliant as a leader, scorer, passer and defender.
4. Wake Forest (19-8, 11-5 ACC)
Head Coach: Steve Forbes, 59 years old, fifth season with Demon Deacons, 2^ NCAA Tournaments (ETSU-2)
Best Wins: 72-70 over Michigan (n), 77-66 at SMU, 76-74 vs. Pitt, 67-66 vs. UNC, 79-73 at Stanford, 80-67 vs. Stanford, 57-51 over Minnesota (n)
Losses: 75-60 at Xavier, 75-58 to Florida (n), 57-44 at Texas A&M, 73-62 at Clemson, 63-56 vs. Duke, 72-59 at Louisville, 72-70 vs. Florida State, 85-73 at NC State
Remaining Regular-Season Games: UVa (2/26), Notre Dame (3/1), at Duke (3/3), Georgia Tech (3/8)
BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 57/69/44/62
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 134/31
Starters: PG Ty-Laur Johnson, G Hunter Sallis, G Cameron Hildreth, F Tre’Von Spillers, C Efton Reid
Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament bubble (“First Four Out”)
Coach Steve Forbes probably has the best team of his five-year tenure at Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons remain in a familiar, uncomfortable place — squarely on the NCAA bubble. Unlike last season, though, the Deacons have a high-caliber victory (Michigan) away from home. Led by All-ACC guard Hunter Sallis, they also have gone 5-0 against their fellow ACC bubble teams, and three of their five league losses are to those in the top tier (Duke, Clemson, Louisville).
5. North Carolina (17-11, 10-6 ACC)
Head Coach: Hubert Davis, 54 years old, fourth season with Tar Heels, 2 NCAA Tournaments
Best Wins: 76-74 over UCLA (n), 82-67 vs. SMU, 67-66 vs. Pitt, 92-90 over Dayton (n), 74-73 at Notre Dame
Losses: 92-89 at Kansas, 85-72 to Auburn (n), 94-91 to Michigan State (n), 94-79 vs. Alabama, 90-84 to Florida (n), 83-70 at Louisville, 72-71 vs. Stanford, 67-66 at Wake Forest, 73-65 at Pitt, 87-70 at Duke, 85-65 at Clemson
Remaining Regular-Season Games: at FSU (2/24), Miami (3/1), at Virginia Tech (3/4), Duke (3/8)
BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 33/44/52/45
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 35/62
Starters: PG Elliot Cadeau, G RJ Davis, G Seth Trimble, F Drake Powell, F Jalen Washington
Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament bubble (“First Four Out”)
For the third time in coach Hubert Davis’ four seasons as the head coach in Chapel Hill, UNC occupies a precarious position in mid-February. This year’s Tar Heels have only one victory over a surefire NCAA Tournament team (UCLA), and they’ve already lost 11 times, albeit against a very difficult schedule. Their challenge now is two-fold; they must find more big wins (regular-season finale vs. Duke and/or ACC Tournament), and they must avoid losses to inferior foes.
6. SMU (20-7, 11-5 ACC)
Head Coach: Andy Enfield, 55 years old, first season with Mustangs, 7^ NCAA Tournaments (FGCU-1/Southern Cal-6)
Best Wins: 83-63 vs. Pitt, 85-61 vs. Stanford, 77-60 over Washington State (n), 74-64 vs. LSU, 54-52 at UVa
Losses: 81-70 at Butler, 84-79 vs. Mississippi State, 89-62 vs. Duke, 82-67 at UNC, 98-73 vs. Louisville, 79-69 vs. Clemson
Remaining Regular-Season Games: at Cal (2/26), at Stanford (3/1), Syracuse (3/4), at FSU (3/8)
BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 42/40/53/39
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 27/77
Starters: PG Boopie Miller, G BJ Edwards, F Matt Cross, F Yohan Traore, C Samet Yigitoglu
Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament bubble (“First Four Out”)
Some updated projections have SMU in this year’s NCAA Tournament field, but that may turn out to be an illusion, because the Mustangs — unlike every other team on this list — simply don’t have a single outstanding victory on their résumé so far this season. Even their highest-profile victims look more like NIT candidates, and when they’ve played tougher competition, they’ve almost always lost by double-digit margins. The ACC Tournament looms large.
7. Pittsburgh (16-11, 7-9 ACC)
Head Coach: Jeff Capel III, 50 years old, seventh season with Panthers, 4 NCAA Tournaments (VCU-1/Oklahoma-2/Pitt-1)
Best Wins: 91-90 at Ohio State, 86-62 vs. West Virginia, 73-65 vs. UNC, 74-63 over LSU (n), 83-68 vs. Stanford
Losses: 81-75 to Wisconsin (n), 90-57 at Mississippi State, 76-47 at Duke, 82-78 vs. Louisville, 82-70 at FSU, 78-75 vs. Clemson, 76-74 at Wake Forest, 73-57 vs. UVa, 67-66 at UNC, 76-72 at Notre Dame
Remaining Regular-Season Games: Georgia Tech (2/25), at Louisville (3/1), at NC State (3/5), Boston College (3/8)
BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 46/54/65/55
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 31/90
Starters: PG Jaland Lowe, G Ishmael Leggett, F Zack Austin, F Guillermo Diaz Graham, F Cameron Corhen
Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament bubble (out)
Sixth-year coach Jeff Capel III started his time at Pitt with four straight losing seasons, then made the NCAA Tournament in 2023 before barely missing it in 2024. Now the Panthers are back on the bubble, with various crosswinds making this year’s conclusion difficult to predict. On the plus side, they have two high-quality nonconference wins (Ohio State, WVU). On the down side, they already have 11 losses, and they recently lost gritty veteran guard Damian Dunn (fractured elbow) for the season.
^—also would have coached in 2020 NCAAA Tournament (cancelled/COVID)
NOTE: (n) = neutral court; vs. = home game; efficiency rankings from KenPom.com.
