ACC Bubble Watch (March 3): Huge Week For UNC, Wake Forest

ACC Bubble Watch (March 3):
Three NCAA Tournament Bids,
Three More Right On The Edge

By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network

In the 1980s, when the Atlantic Coast Conference consisted of only eight schools, the league’s teams sometimes collectively earned only four invitations to the NCAA Tournament, but it still was considered a successful season.

This year, with the ACC an 18-school monstrosity for the first time, only four bids to the Big Dance would be a truly unprecedented disaster.

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 (now 68) teams in 1985, the ACC has never failed to get at least one-third of its teams into the bracket. The league hit exactly that threshold — five of 15 — in each of the past three seasons. At other times, the league’s baseline was three of nine, or four of 12.

With less than a week remaining in the 2024-25 regular season, only three ACC teams — Duke, Clemson and Louisville — can feel comfortable with their NCAA Tournament projections. Three more schools — Wake Forest, North Carolina and SMU — are on or near the NCAA bubble, and in each case they’re almost out of opportunities to upgrade their résumé.

The Demon Deacons visit #2 Duke on Monday. The Tar Heels host the Blue Devils on Saturday. Wake, UNC and SMU also will have opportunities for impact victories next week (March 11-15), at the ACC Tournament in Charlotte.

Reminder: These are NOT predictions of future results/standings but rather a reflection of the teams’ “body of work” in games already played (through March 2).

1. Duke (26-3, 17-1 ACC)

Head Coach: Jon Scheyer, 37 years old, third season with Blue Devils, 2 NCAA Tournaments

Best Wins: 84-78 vs. Auburn, 69-55 at Arizona, 76-65 at Louisville, 110-67 over Illinois (n), 63-56 at Wake Forest, 89-62 at SMU, 87-70 vs. UNC, 76-47 vs. Pitt, 68-47 vs. George Mason, 106-70 vs. Stanford

Losses: 77-72 to Kentucky (n), 75-72 to Kansas (n), 77-71 at Clemson

Remaining Regular-Season Games: Wake Forest (3/3), at UNC (3/8)

BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 1/1/8/2

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 2/4

Starters: G Sion James, G Tyrese Proctor, G Kon Knueppel, F Cooper Flagg, C Khaman Maluach

Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament (1 seed)

Duke’s 2022 coaching transition from Mike Krzyzewski to Jon Scheyer, who was only 34 years old at the time, has gone incredibly smoothly. The Blue Devils won the ACC championship in Scheyer’s first season, made the Elite Eight last year and are the favorites to claim the ACC regular-season title, the ACC Tournament (official) championship and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament this year. Freshman forward Cooper Flagg may be the National Player of the Year.

2. Clemson (24-5, 16-2 ACC)

Head Coach: Brad Brownell, 56 years old, 15th season with Tigers, 7 NCAA Tournaments (UNCW-2/Wright State-1/Clemson-4)

Best Wins: 77-71 vs. Duke, 70-66 vs. Kentucky, 79-69 at SMU, 73-62 vs. Wake Forest, 85-65 vs. UNC, 78-75 at Pitt, 75-67 over Penn State (n), 85-71 vs. Stanford, 70-55 over San Francisco (n)

Losses: 84-71 to Boise State (n), 87-82 vs. Memphis, 91-88 at South Carolina, 74-64 at Louisville, 89-86 vs. Georgia Tech

Remaining Regular-Season Games: at Boston College (3/5), Virginia Tech (3/8)

BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 13/17/16/20

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 16/24

Starters: G Jaeden Zackery, G Chase Hunter, F Chauncey Wiggins, F Ian Schieffelin, C Viktor Lakhin

Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament (5 seed)

After making only two NCAA Tournament appearances in his first 10 seasons at Clemson, 15th-year coach Brad Brownell is poised to take the Tigers to the Big Dance for the third time in five years. Home-grown stars Chase Hunter (a sixth-year senior) and Ian Schieffelin (a fourth-year senior) have blended extremely well with transfer additions Jaeden Zackery (Boston College) and Viktor Lakhin (Cincinnati), who were multi-year starters at their previous schools.

3. Louisville (23-6, 16-2 ACC)

Head Coach: Pat Kelsey, 49 years old, first season with Cardinals, 5^ NCAA Tournaments (Winthrop-3/Charleston-2)

Best Wins: 74-64 vs. Clemson, 79-70 over West Virginia (n), 89-61 over Indiana (n), 98-73 at SMU, 82-78 at Pitt, 72-59 vs. Wake Forest, 83-70 vs. UNC, 79-68 vs. Pitt

Losses: 77-55 vs. Tennessee, 69-64 to Oklahoma (n), 86-63 vs. Ole Miss, 76-65 vs. Duke, 93-85 at Kentucky, 77-70 at Georgia Tech

Remaining Regular-Season Games: Cal (3/5), Stanford (3/8)

BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 30/24/18/25

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 24/25

Starters: PG Chucky Hepburn, G Reyne Smith, G Terrence Edwards, F J’Vonne Hadley, F James Scott

Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament (7 seed)

First-year Louisville coach Pat Kelsey is a strong ACC Coach of the Year candidate (along with Scheyer and Brownell), in part because he had to build his entire 13-man roster from scratch, after every scholarship player transferred out in the aftermath of the disastrous two-year tenure of his predecessor, Kenny Payne. Senior point guard Chucky Hepburn, formerly a three-year starter at Wisconsin, has been absolutely brilliant as a leader, scorer, passer and defender.

4. Wake Forest (20-9, 12-6 ACC)

Head Coach: Steve Forbes, 59 years old, fifth season with Demon Deacons, 2^ NCAA Tournaments (ETSU-2)

Best Wins: 72-70 over Michigan (n), 77-66 at SMU, 67-66 vs. UNC, 76-74 vs. Pitt, 79-73 at Stanford, 80-67 vs. Stanford, 57-51 over Minnesota (n)

Losses: 75-60 at Xavier, 75-58 to Florida (n), 57-44 at Texas A&M, 73-62 at Clemson, 63-56 vs. Duke, 72-59 at Louisville, 72-70 vs. Florida State, 85-73 at NC State, 83-75 vs. Virginia

Remaining Regular-Season Games: at Duke (3/3), Georgia Tech (3/8)

BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 62/77/51/69

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 135/45

Starters: PG Ty-Laur Johnson, G Hunter Sallis, G Cameron Hildreth, F Tre’Von Spillers, C Efton Reid

Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament bubble (“First Four Out”)

Coach Steve Forbes probably has the best team of his five-year tenure at Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons remain in a familiar, uncomfortable place — squarely on the NCAA bubble. Unlike last season, though, the Deacons have a high-caliber victory (Michigan) away from home. Led by All-ACC guard Hunter Sallis, they also have gone 5-0 against their fellow ACC bubble teams, and three of their six league losses are to those in the top tier (Duke, Clemson, Louisville).

5. North Carolina (19-11, 12-6 ACC)

Head Coach: Hubert Davis, 54 years old, fourth season with Tar Heels, 2 NCAA Tournaments

Best Wins: 76-74 over UCLA (n), 82-67 vs. SMU, 67-66 vs. Pitt, 92-90 over Dayton (n), 96-85 at Florida State, 74-73 at Notre Dame

Losses: 92-89 at Kansas, 85-72 to Auburn (n), 94-91 to Michigan State (n), 94-79 vs. Alabama, 90-84 to Florida (n), 83-70 at Louisville, 72-71 vs. Stanford, 67-66 at Wake Forest, 73-65 at Pitt, 87-70 at Duke, 85-65 at Clemson

Remaining Regular-Season Games: at Virginia Tech (3/4), Duke (3/8)

BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 31/39/53/42

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 22/78

Starters: PG Elliot Cadeau, G RJ Davis, G Seth Trimble, F Drake Powell, F Jalen Washington

Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament bubble (“First Four Out”)

For the third time in coach Hubert Davis’ four seasons as the head coach in Chapel Hill, UNC occupied a precarious position in February. This year’s Tar Heels have only one victory over a surefire NCAA Tournament team (UCLA), and they’ve already lost 11 times, albeit against a very difficult schedule. Their challenge now is two-fold; they must find more big wins (regular-season finale vs. Duke and/or ACC Tournament), and they must avoid losses to inferior foes.

6. SMU (21-8, 12-6 ACC)

Head Coach: Andy Enfield, 55 years old, first season with Mustangs, 7^ NCAA Tournaments (FGCU-1/Southern Cal-6)

Best Wins: 85-61 vs. Stanford, 83-63 vs. Pitt, 77-60 over Washington State (n), 74-64 vs. LSU

Losses: 81-70 at Butler, 84-79 vs. Mississippi State, 89-62 vs. Duke, 82-67 at UNC, 98-73 vs. Louisville, 77-66 vs. Wake Forest, 79-69 vs. Clemson, 73-68 at Stanford

Remaining Regular-Season Games: Syracuse (3/4), at FSU (3/8)

BPI/KenPom/KPI/NET Team Rankings (of 364): 43/46/57/41

Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 364): 27/80

Starters: PG Boopie Miller, G BJ Edwards, F Matt Cross, F Yohan Traore, C Samet Yigitoglu

Current Postseason Projection: NCAA Tournament bubble (“First Four Out”)

Some updated projections have SMU in this year’s NCAA Tournament field, but that may turn out to be an illusion, because the Mustangs — unlike every other team on this list — simply don’t have a single outstanding victory on their résumé so far this season. Even their highest-profile victims look more like NIT candidates, and when they’ve played tougher competition, they’ve almost always lost by double-digit margins. The ACC Tournament looms large.