ACC, NC Programs Will Populate
Women’s March Madness Bracket
By Ben McCormick
North Carolina Sports Network
It’s March, and the madness is upon us.
In college basketball, many conference tournaments begin this week (some start Tuesday!), which is why it’s a great time to offer a quick glance at the Atlantic Coast Conference and a deeper look at some of the best teams from the state of North Carolina.
While the ACC is nervous on the men’s side about the high likelihood of receiving a relatively small number of NCAA Tournament bids for the third year in a row, the league has no such concern with the women’s tournament.
In fact, current projections have the ACC getting a whopping nine bids to the women’s tournament, more than any other league.
#10 NC State (25-5, 13-5 ACC) and #11 Virginia Tech (23-6, 14-4), the top two seeds at this week’s ACC Tournament in Greensboro, are projected as three seeds in the NCAA Tournament. #14 Notre Dame (23-6, 13-5), #20 Syracuse (23-6, 13-5) and #24 Louisville (23-8, 12-6) are likely in the four-, five- or six-seed range right now regarding the big bracket but could move up or down a bit based on their play this week. UNC (19-11, 11-7), Duke (19-10, 11-7), Florida State (21-9, 12-6) and Miami (18-11, 8-10) also are in position to receive at-large NCAA bids.
Meanwhile, among the 19 Division I women’s basketball programs in North Carolina, three (NC State, UNC, Duke) know they will make it to the Big Dance, at least two more (High Point, North Carolina A&T) have realistic hopes of getting there, one (Davidson) pulled the plug on its season last week because of an avalanche of serious injuries, and everyone else theoretically still has a chance because of the auto-bid nature of conference tournaments.
The in-state programs have varied dramatically in their success this season. Just within the “Big Four” of Tobacco Road, the variance is readily apparent.
NC State, a three-time ACC champion (2020, 2021, 2022) under legendary coach Wes Moore, has been ranked in the national top 10 for much of this season. Duke and Carolina also are considered tournament locks. Meanwhile, Wake Forest sits dead last in the ACC, 6-24 overall and 2-16 in conference play.
Beyond the ACC’s successful Triangle trio, there are in-state teams that rank among the best in their low-major and mid-major conferences. However, the only path to the Big Dance for all of those non-ACC programs requires securing the automatic bid available in their respective conference tournaments.
With the postseason upon us and the calendar flipped to March, here are the North Carolina-based women’s teams with the best chance to dance here in 2024:
1. NC State Wolfpack (25-5, 13-5 ACC)
ACC Tournament seed: #2
Projected NCAA seed (ESPN): #3
National Ranking (AP): #10
NET Ranking: #15
Despite dropping back-to-back games last week to intrastate rivals North Carolina and Duke, Moore’s squad remains a national power.
After falling short of expectations and losing in the NCAA Tournament’s first round to #10 seed Princeton last year, the Wolfpack started this season unranked. That didn’t last long, though.
In just its second game of the season, NC State knocked off then-#2 UConn. From that point on, the Wolfpack has been ranked in the Top 25, even reaching as high as #3 in the Associated Press poll.
In a year in which the ACC is flexing its incredible depth, State has risen toward the top. Besides its win over the Huskies, State has notable victories over #14 Notre Dame, #18 Colorado, #24 Louisville and, most recently, #20 Syracuse.
Junior guard Aziaha James is leading the Wolfpack in scoring, with nearly 16 points per game. She is joined in the backcourt by Madison Hayes and Saniya Rivers, who each contribute better than 12 points per game.
Rivers, a national champion during her time at South Carolina, has been especially notable in her second year in Raleigh. She dropped 33 points and grabbed 10 boards in State’s massive, season-defining win over UConn. From that moment on, the Wolfpack has been considered a Final Four contender.
With an at-large bid locked up long ago, NC State has been focused on positioning itself for postseason success in multiple ways.
“We do have a lot to play for,” Moore said. “Finishing top four in the ACC gets you a double bye (at the ACC Tournament) and definitely improves your chances of making a run. And then, also, finishing in the top four of the ACC gives you a pretty good chance of being one of the top 16 seeds in the country, and you get to host the first and second round.”
2. Duke Blue Devils (19-10, 11-7 ACC)
ACC Tournament seed: #7
Projected NCAA seed (ESPN): #7
National Ranking (AP): unranked
NET Ranking: #20
Coach Kara Lawson’s team is built on defense. Last year’s squad played some ugly games. But, sometimes, winning doesn’t have to be pretty.
After landing a #3 NCAA seed last year, in Lawson’s best season at the helm in Durham, Duke was expected by many to experience a drop-off. What has occurred has been less of a drop-off and more of a restructuring.
After losing standouts Celeste Taylor and Shayeann Day-Wilson to the transfer portal, Duke had to rebuild.
The 2024 Blue Devils are young, but they have shooters, especially the Blue Devils’ leading scorer, Reigan Richardson. Averaging 12.2 points per game, Richardson has been a threat from beyond the arc all season.
Overall, Duke’s offensive attack is balanced. It is often spearheaded by Richardson, but Boston College point guard transfer Taina Mair is scoring over 10 points per game as well.
Joining them in the backcourt is former McDonald’s All-American three-point champion Ashlon Jackson. Lawson’s group has a bevy of talented first-years as well, including former top-five recruit Jadyn Donovan and former four-stars Delaney Thomas and Oluchi Okananwa.
As usual, Lawson’s team is a problem for the opposition defensively, and it’s Okananwa who embodies this mentality. Her relentless defensive effort typifies what makes Duke such a threat — aggressive defense. The Blue Devils once again boast the top scoring defense in the ACC.
Duke has been up and down this season, though. It lost games at Clemson and to Davidson at home but also has an array of impressive wins, including those over #10 NC State, #11 Virginia Tech, #20 Syracuse, FSU and UNC.
That’s the reality of playing such a tough schedule in the ACC; the season typically ebbs and flows.
“When you play a really hard team, it reveals where your strengths are and where your weaknesses are and where you need to grow,” Lawson said. “If you’re playing bad teams, it’s not revealing what you need to improve on, so we just wanted to challenge ourselves, and I think they’ve handled these challenges really well.”
Despite never entering the AP Top 25 this season, the Blue Devils are squarely in the NCAA field and will look to be a wild card on everyone’s brackets.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11, 11-7 ACC)
ACC Tournament seed: #8
Projected NCAA seed (ESPN): #6
National Ranking (AP): unranked
NET Ranking: #32
It’s been a month since UNC was last ranked in the AP Top 25, but the Tar Heels have been falling short of expectations for a while now.
The Heels aren’t a bad team. Far from it. Senior standouts Deja Kelly and Alyssa Ustby have been mostly stellar. Kelly’s nearly 17 points per game and Ustby’s all-around game, which helped her notch the first triple-double in program history in January, have them poised for the third All-ACC selections of their careers.
However, coach Courtney Banghart’s team was picked to finish third in the ACC back in the preseason. Instead, Carolina is the #8 seed at the ACC Tournament.
Early in the year, UNC escaped scares from Davidson and Vermont before losing three straight (and four out of five) games. Three of those losses were to national powers such as #1 South Carolina, #9 UConn and #16 Kansas State. The other was to Florida Gulf Coast.
For the next month and a half following that losing skid, the Tar Heels rattled off nine wins over the course of 10 games, including victories over #14 Notre Dame, #19 Oklahoma, #20 Syracuse and #24 Louisville. That’s the potential of this Tar Heel squad; UNC can hang with some of the best teams in the country.
However, the Heels still appear shaky at times. At the end of January, UNC lost by 15 to a Virginia team that’s now 15-14. Then February ushered in three more losses — to #10 NC State, #11 Virginia Tech and unranked Duke — to extend the losing streak to four. While the Heels kept all of those games close (even taking the Hokies to overtime), they ultimately came up short.
Nevertheless, UNC will be in the NCAA Tournament field. It has too many quality wins not to be. But perhaps the last few weeks of games best describe what you can expect from the Heels: complete unpredictability.
“This team’s had a lot of versions, and so it’s hard to look back,” Banghart said. “I think this particular version of our team is still working through what they do when adversity hits inside the lines.”
4. High Point Panthers (19-10, 14-2 Big South)
Big South Tournament seed: #1
Projected NCAA seed (ESPN): #16 (with league title)
National Ranking (AP): unranked
NET Ranking: #265
The Panthers may not look as impressive on paper, but they are one of just four teams from North Carolina currently projected by ESPN’s Charlie Creme to make the field of 68.
They secured only a handful of wins in non-conference play during a stretch that High Point would likely rather forget. That included a 39-point loss at Virginia Tech in the season opener and a 62-point shellacking at Texas.
However, conference play in the Big South was a different story. The Panthers consistently racked up victories there and recently concluded the regular season with a 10-game winning streak. Their only two league losses came in January, to Radford and USC Upstate, two teams the Panthers have since exacted revenge on.
The Panthers lean heavily on graduate guard Lauren Bevis. After four years at Gardner-Webb, Bevis decided to come back to her hometown of High Point. Now she leads the Big South in scoring, at 16.6 points per game.
High Point has proven it is the team to beat in the Big South, but all that can slip away in just one game. During this week’s league tournament at the Qubein Center, the team’s home court, the Panthers will have to play well to win.
“One thing’s guaranteed in this league,” coach Chelsea Banbury said. “It’s going to be competitive every year. Every night you have to show up and you have to play the game, and, quite honestly, you don’t know who’s going to win.”
5. North Carolina A&T Aggies (18-9, 12-4 CAA)
CAA Tournament seed: TBD
Projected NCAA seed (ESPN): #16 (with league title)
National Ranking (AP): unranked
NET Ranking: #137
The Aggies are tied for second place in the Coastal Athletic Association standings, two games behind Stony Brook, but that won’t matter once the CAA Tournament begins next week. At that point, it will be one game at a time.
North Carolina A&T may have a good shot at cutting down the nets at the CAA Tournament, too. A&T is led in scoring and rebounding by graduate center Jazmin Harris. In the backcourt, the Aggies have a pair of solid guards, senior Maleia Bracone and junior Jordyn Dorsey.
A&T’s nonconference slate had some encouraging moments, including a win over Wake Forest. The Aggies played competitively with Georgia and Saint Mary’s, too. The only blowout they suffered all year was a 40-point loss to Louisville.
In conference play, the Aggies have been the ones handing out blowout losses. Months ago, that wasn’t the expectation around the league. In the preseason, the Aggies were picked to finish eighth in the CAA.
“I just know for a fact that these teams are just not working as hard as we are,” Dorsey said. “They’re not as detailed, they’re not as stout as we are. So I feel like we deserve it more than anybody, and we’re going to continue to work hard.”
Other Notable NC Women’s Teams
East Carolina Pirates, American Athletic Conference
Record: 15-13, 8-9, 10th in AAC
NET Ranking: #116
Charlotte 49ers, American Athletic Conference
Record: 16-13, 9-8, fourth in AAC
NET Ranking: #124
UNC Greenboro Spartans, Southern Conference
Record: 19-10, 8-6, second in SoCon
NET Ranking: #217