Amidst Changing Times for Rookies,
Carrington, McCain Top ACC Freshmen

By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network

The impact of freshmen in major college basketball has changed a lot over the years.

Until the 1972-73 season, with some wartime exceptions, NCAA rules prohibited freshmen from playing varsity basketball at all. Instead, the collegiate newcomers played a single season on their respective schools’ unpublicized freshman teams, then had a maximum of three years of eligibility on the varsity.

In the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, although freshmen were eligible and occasionally stars (e.g., Phil Ford, Magic Johnson, Ralph Sampson, Wayman Tisdale, Patrick Ewing, Shaquille O’Neal, Kenny Anderson, Antawn Jamison), all but the very best college rookies typically had to wait their turn behind proven upperclassmen, during an era when early jumps to the NBA were far less common and the “one-and-done” concept hadn’t yet taken over the sport.

As more elite college players left school early, college basketball became younger and less experienced overall, and — perhaps predictably — more freshmen made high-level impacts.

In the first 61 seasons of ACC basketball (including 42 seasons during which freshmen were eligible), there were 63 ACC Players of the Year, counting one tie and one split vote (back when the coaches and media voted separately). The honored player was usually a senior (34 times) or a junior (21), occasionally a sophomore (eight), and never a freshman.

In a reflection of the changing times, just in the last nine years, three freshmen have earned the ACC Player of the Year honor: Duke center Jahlil Okafor (2015), Duke forward Marvin Bagley III (2018) and Duke forward Zion Williamson (2019).

Underlining the same trend nationally, from the 1950s into the early 2000s, no freshman had ever captured the National Player of the Year honor. In the last 17 years, there have been three such players: Texas forward Kevin Durant (2007), Kentucky center Anthony Davis (2012) and Duke’s Williamson (2019).

Over the last two years especially, thanks largely to an NCAA-wide, COVID-related bonus eligibility season and stay-in-school financial incentives related to new Name-Image-Likeness rules (which started with the 2021-22 season), college basketball again has become an older and more experienced game. It is not unusual to see 23-, 24- and 25-year-old players.

Sure enough — and perhaps predictably — the impact of freshmen, generally speaking, again looks a lot more like it did decades ago, with rare superstars and few big-time contributors.

Last year’s 15-man All-ACC squad included 13 graduate students, seniors and juniors but only one freshman. That was Duke forward Kyle Filipowski, the league’s Rookie of the Year, who was voted onto the All-ACC second unit.

This year’s All-ACC team will have a similar theme. The top candidates include fifth- or sixth-year seniors (UNC center Armando Bacot, Clemson guard Joe Girard, NC State guard DJ Horne, Pitt forward Blake Hinson, Boston College forward Quinten Post), an extraordinary group of traditional, single-school seniors (UNC guard RJ Davis, Clemson forward PJ Hall, Virginia guard Reece Beekman, Duke guard Jeremy Roach) and several experienced transfers (Miami senior forward Norchad Omier, Wake Forest junior guard Hunter Sallis, UNC junior forward Harrison Ingram, Wake Forest senior forward Andrew Carr), among just a handful of others.

The only sophomores likely to make this year’s All-ACC squad are Filipowski and Syracuse point guard Judah Mintz, and it will be a surprise if more than one freshman makes the team.

In stark contrast, during one very recent five-year stretch, five Duke freshmen made the five-man All-ACC first team: Bagley (2018), Williamson (2019), RJ Barrett (2019), Vernon Carey Jr. (2020) and Paolo Banchero (2022).

With that quickly changing world in mind, perhaps it’s not a surprise that some of the most highly touted ACC freshmen aren’t playing much at all this season.

Duke forward Sean Stewart, a McDonald’s All-American and consensus top-15 high school senior, is averaging only 7.8 minutes and 2.4 points per game. Duke forward TJ Power, a top-25 signee, is averaging only 6.8 minutes and 1.9 points per game. Louisville center Dennis Evans, a member of the United States U-17 Junior National Team and a top-30 recruit, averaged only 9.1 minutes and 1.6 points per game before being sidelined by injury in December.

Meanwhile, only six ACC freshmen have started 15 or more games so far this season: North Carolina point guard Elliot Cadeau, Pittsburgh point guard Carlton “Bub” Carrington, Notre Dame point guard Markus Burton, Georgia Tech point guard Naithan George, Duke wing guard Jared McCain and Georgia Tech forward Baye Ndongo.

(Side note: Further showcasing a college basketball theme that was far less common decades ago, Carrington is an 18-year-old freshman and one of the 10 youngest players in Division One men’s basketball, while Ndongo — also a freshman — is already 21 years old.)

Both Carrington and McCain (see statistics below) likely will receive significant support in this year’s ACC Rookie of the Year balloting, which will take place at the end of the regular season.

Burton leads all ACC rookies in scoring, but he also has far more turnovers than any player in the league, while playing for a 9-16 Notre Dame team that’s 13th in the conference standings.

Among the ACC’s best freshmen, only McCain and Cadeau (the two highest-rated signees to join the league this season) play for teams that are virtually certain to qualify for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, which likely will help their candidacies for postseason honors, although Carrington/Pitt may make the Big Dance, too.

My Late-Season ACC All-Freshman Ballot

Carlton “Bub” Carrington, 6-5, 190, Guard, Pittsburgh
Stats: 33 mpg, 14 ppg, 5 rpg, 4 apg, 40% FG, 83% FT, 29% threes, 102/46 ATO, 12 steals, 7 blocks
Metrics: 3.3 BPR, 15.6 PER, 2.7 WS

Jared McCain, 6-3, 197, Guard, Duke
Stats: 30 mpg, 13 ppg, 4 rpg, 2 apg, 45% FG, 85% FT, 39% threes, 45/24 ATO, 25 steals, 0 blocks
Metrics: 4.0 BPR, 18.2 PER, 3.0 WS

Markus Burton, 5-11, 166, Guard, Notre Dame
Stats: 33 mpg, 16 ppg, 3 rpg, 42% FG, 81% FT, 29% threes, 106/96 ATO, 49 steals, 6 blocks
Metrics: 1.2 BPR, 16.5 PER, 1.8 WS

Elliot Cadeau, 6-1, 180, Guard, North Carolina
Stats: 24 mpg, 8 ppg, 2 rpg, 42% FG, 64% FT, 22% threes, 98/41 ATO, 17 steals, 2 blocks
Metrics: 5.1 BPR, 12.1 PER, 1.6 WS

Baye Ndongo, 6-9, 214, Forward, Georgia Tech
Stats: 27 mpg, 12 ppg, 8 rpg, 58% FG, 60% FT, 30% threes, 18/52 ATO, 18 steals, 27 blocks
Metrics: 0.3 BPR, 19.9 PER, 1.6 WS

Other ACC Freshmen Playing 20+ MPG

G Naithan George, Georgia Tech — 30 mpg, 10 ppg, 1.0 WS (starter)
G Braeden Shrewsberry, Notre Dame — 27 mpg, 9 ppg, 1.4 WS
G Caleb Foster, Duke — 25 mpg, 8 ppg, 1.7 WS
G Kyshawn George, Miami — 22 mpg, 8 ppg, 1.5 WS
G Jaland Lowe, Pittsburgh — 23 mpg, 8 ppg, 1.3 WS
G Ty-Laur Johnson, Louisville — 23 mpg, 9 ppg, 0.9 WS

NOTES: BPR = Bayesian Performance Rating (EvanMiya.com); PER = Player Efficiency Rating; WS = Win Shares (Sports-Reference.com).

This week on the David Glenn Show (link below), Pitt head coach Jeff Capel discussed this year’s top ACC All-Freshman candidates in significant detail.