Details Behind Mediocre In-State Starts
Suggest “Any Bowl” Might Be Revised Goal
(3-3 North Carolina Provides One Example)


By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network

During Mack Brown’s first coaching tenure at North Carolina, he quickly elevated the program to a point where winning records were expected, and most of his teams had much higher aspirations.

Indeed, after two brutal 1-10 seasons back in 1988 and 1989, the Tar Heels posted eight consecutive winning campaigns under Brown. From 1992-97, Carolina made six consecutive postseason appearances (at a time when there were “only” about 20 bowl games) and finished in the national Top 25 five times.

The final team of Brown’s first UNC tenure went 11-1 and ended up #4 in the final coaches’ poll.

The only Carolina football team that has ever finished with a higher ranking in any major poll was the 1948 Tar Heels, who posted a 9-0-1 regular-season record in 1948 under coach Carl Snavely. Those Heels finished #3 in the 1948 Associated Press poll (behind only Michigan and Notre Dame) despite losing to #5 Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, at a time when the final AP poll was published before postseason games were played.

Brown’s current tenure in Chapel Hill, of course, hasn’t reached such rarified air, at least through these first five and a half seasons.

There was an impressive Top 25 national finish (#17) after an 8-4 campaign in 2020, then an exciting 9-5 campaign (including a trip to the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game) in 2022. Along the way, the Tar Heels have played in five consecutive bowl games, including the prestigious Orange Bowl after the COVID-impacted 2020 season.

Mack Brown’s Current UNC Tenure
Year — Overall, ACC — Postseason

2019 — 7-6, 4-4 ACC — Military Bowl (W)
2020 — 8-4, 7-3 ACC — Orange Bowl (L)
2021 — 6-7, 3-5 ACC — Duke’s Mayo Bowl (L)
2022 — 9-5, 6-2 ACC — Holiday Bowl (L)
2023 — 8-5, 4-4 ACC — Duke’s Mayo Bowl (L)
2024 — 3-3, 0-2 ACC — ???

Brown also deserves credit for elevating the talent level at UNC. Over the past five National Football League drafts (2020-24), the Tar Heels have had 18 players selected. Among the league’s 17 programs, only modern ACC juggernaut Clemson (26) has had more NFL draft picks during that period.

A legendary recruiter, Brown in recent years has sent to the NFL multiple record-setting quarterbacks (Sam Howell, Drake Maye), dominant running backs (Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, Ty Chandler, former walk-on British Brooks, likely Omarion Hampton from this year’s team), skilled wide receivers (Dyami Brown, Josh Downs, Antoine Green, Tez Walker) and multi-talented linebackers (Cole Holcomb, Chazz Surratt, Cedric Gray), among others.

This year’s Tar Heels, however, definitely lack that sort of overall star power, especially on defense, and that has been among the team’s most obvious problems during its mediocre 3-3 start.

The Heels gave up a school-record number of points in their 70-50 home loss to James Madison, and they fell 34-24 to Pitt at Kenan Stadium on Saturday.

“Defensively (against Pitt), quarterback and tailback are the two guys we had to stop, and we didn’t stop ‘em, they made the plays,” Brown said Monday. “We gotta take away what they do best, and we didn’t do that.”

Hampton, an All-American last season, is an absolute stud for UNC at running back. Guard Willie Lampkin has been an All-ACC player on an embattled but improving offensive line. Wide receiver JJ Jones and tight end Bryson Nesbit also may be all-conference-caliber talents, but they haven’t had a chance to shine as much this year, with the Tar Heels using three different quarterbacks behind an extremely inexperienced line that especially has struggled with pass protection.

On defense, there is less overall talent, and there are fewer healthy standouts.

The unit’s best player, edge rusher Kaimon Rucker, was outstanding in Carolina’s season-opening 19-17 victory at Minnesota, but he has barely played since then because of a lower-body injury. Tackle Jahvaree Ritzie, linebacker Amare Campbell and cornerback Alijah Huzzie also have played very well at times this season, but they need a lot more help from their teammates, and it’s not clear how or where they’re going to find that help.

UNC is giving up an average of 28.7 points per game, the third-worst number in the ACC. The Tar Heels have been especially leaky with their pass defense, yielding 8.4 yards per passing attempt. That number ranks dead-last in the conference, largely because of opponents’ extraordinary number of “explosive” passing plays, typically meaning those of 20 yards or more.

“We had a lot of great plays on defense (against Pitt). We’re playing consistently well, and then we’re not — we’re giving up the big play again,” Brown said. “So we’ve got to get better, and we’ve got to force more turnovers.

“(Defensive back) Kaleb Cost had one of the great plays of the year, with his interception for a touchdown, but that’s the only turnover. We had our hands on two other balls in the air. We had the ball on the ground (via Pitt fumbles/muffs) twice and didn’t get it. We’ve just got to start taking advantage of opportunities, and we’re not doing that.”

The second half of UNC’s regular-season schedule, starting with Georgia Tech’s visit to Chapel Hill on Saturday (noon, The CW), suggests that the Tar Heels’ five-year bowl streak under Brown is in jeopardy. Under NCAA rules, a team needs six victories to reach automatic bowl eligibility.

Among the state of North Carolina’s other six Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) programs, only 5-1 Duke appears to be a lock for the postseason.

School (Record) — Remaining Regular-Season Opponents

App State (2-3) — at Louisiana (4-1), Georgia State (2-2), ODU (1-4), at Coastal Carolina (4-2), JMU (5-1), at Georgia Southern (3-2)
Charlotte (3-3) — at Navy (5-0), at Memphis (4-1), Tulane (4-2), USF (2-3), at FAU (2-3), UAB (1-4)
ECU (3-3) — at Army (5-0), Temple (1-5), FAU (2-3), at Tulsa (2-4), at North Texas (4-1), Navy (5-0)
NC State (3-3) — Syracuse (4-1), at Cal (3-2), Stanford (2-3), Duke (5-1), at Georgia Tech (4-2), at UNC (3-3)
UNC (3-3) — Georgia Tech (4-2), at UVa (4-1), at FSU (1-5), Wake Forest (2-3), at BC (4-2), NC State (3-3)
Wake Forest (2-3) — Clemson (4-1), at UConn (4-2), at Stanford, (2-3), Cal (3-2), at UNC (3-3), at Miami (6-0), Duke (5-1)

Carolina is a six-point underdog this week against the 4-2 Yellow Jackets. The Tar Heels also may be the underdog in all three of their remaining road games, against Virginia (4-1), Florida State (1-5) and Boston College (4-2). UNC could be a slight favorite for its home games against Wake Forest (2-3) and NC State (3-3), although that could change depending on the teams’ results between now and when those matchups will occur, in mid- and late November, respectively.

“If you look at college football, in general, it’s crazy right now. It’s down to who makes the best plays at the end, because there’s just a fine line between most teams,” Brown said. “There’s some that are better than everybody else. Everybody else has a chance each week.”

Certainly, nobody on UNC’s remaining schedule belongs in the “better than everybody else” category. At the same time, none of those six opponents represents an easy win, either.

If Year Six of Brown’s second tenure in Chapel Hill ends up with a 6-6 regular-season record (or better) and a bowl trip, his recruiting pitch can continue to include “perennial bowl team — led by a Hall of Fame coach, at an elite public university, in a wonderful college town — that sends a lot of players to the NFL.”

If Year Six falls short of 6-6, the conversation surrounding the Tar Heels’ 73-year-old head coach will take on a much different and far more unpleasant tone.