UNC Football’s Preseason Goals
Remain Mostly Within Reach
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
Finish.
Beat State.
Win a bowl game.
Those three goals were among the highest priorities of North Carolina coach Mack Brown back in August.
Here in mid-November, with the Tar Heels 5-4 heading into Saturday’s matchup against 4-5 Wake Forest at Kenan Stadium (8 pm, ACCN), all three goals remain within reach. Put differently, even with only three regular-season games remaining, there is a canyon-sized gap between UNC’s best-case and worst-case scenarios.
In the storybook ending, the Tar Heels finish the regular season 8-4, earn a bid to a quality bowl game, win that postseason contest and finish 9-4. That would mark the best record of Brown’s second tenure in Chapel Hill, maintain the Heels’ perfect bowl streak (six-for-six) during the Brown 2.0 Era, end a four-bowl losing streak and even give them a chance to finish in the national Top 25.
In the disaster scenario, the Tar Heels finish the regular season 5-7 and miss the postseason entirely. That would mark UNC’s worst ACC record (2-6) during Brown’s second tenure, it would extend the Heels’ losing streak to rival NC State, and it would end Brown’s impressive 11-season pattern (dating to his first tenure) of leading the Heels to a bowl every year.
In 2022, the Tar Heels were 9-1 in mid-November but finished the season 9-5, losing 39-10 to Clemson in the ACC championship game and 28-27 to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl.
In 2023, the Tar Heels were 8-2 in mid-November but finished the season 8-4, losing 30-10 to West Virginia in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
Meanwhile, for three straight years, Carolina has lost to rival NC State — 34-30 in Raleigh in 2021, 30-27 in double overtime in Chapel Hill in 2022, and 39-20 in Raleigh in 2023. This year’s matchup against the Wolfpack will be back at Kenan Stadium, in the teams’ regular-season finale on Nov. 30.
“We’ve done some really wonderful things for the five years we’ve been here, but we haven’t finished right the last two years,” Brown said. “People remember November. People are frustrated with us because of the State game. People are frustrated with us because we haven’t finished the season. And I get it; I’m the same way. So I want to make sure we get that fixed.”
Looking ahead, there are a few legitimate reasons for optimism in Chapel Hill.
First, UNC is an 11-point favorite over Wake Forest this week, and the Tar Heels likely will be favored against NC State, too. The Nov. 23 road trip to Boston College is viewed by the wise guys in Las Vegas as more of a coin-flip contest.
Second, the Tar Heels’ three remaining regular-season opponents are having mediocre campaigns. Wake Forest is 4-5, Boston College is 5-4, and NC State is 5-5, and none of the three has been playing particularly well lately.
Third, both Carolina’s schedule (with two late-season open dates) and player substitution patterns may be setting the team up for success rather than another late-season collapse. The Tar Heels played their best football of the season coming off their Oct. 19 open date, and they certainly hope that theme continues after their open date last Saturday. Meanwhile, UNC’s coaches have mostly followed through on their preseason promise to rotate more players, especially on defense, in an attempt to avoid late-season exhaustion.
“The #1 thing, I feel like, and (defensive coordinator) Geoff Collins feels the same way, is let’s play more people,” Brown said. “It’ll help you in the transfer portal. We’ve lost some backups; if they’re playing, they’re not gonna leave. You’ll have them more developed. You won’t play Ced Gray and Power Echols 900 snaps at linebacker (as happened in 2023) and then be tired for the last three games. And then the starters are so tired, they can’t be on special teams, and then you’re average on special teams. And you get people hurt, because they’re worn out.
“We’ll have fewer injuries. We’ll have more energy. We’ll have guys that are more excited about being on special teams as starters. We’ll be developing more players, and we’ll have more team morale. I think all of that will lead to a better finish.”
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Carolina just played its two most complete games of the season, winning both in truly dominating fashion.
During the Tar Heels’ 41-14 thrashing of Virginia in Charlottesville, they posted 10 sacks and limited the Cavaliers to only 288 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, as All-American running back Omarion Hampton (26 rushes, 105 yards, two touchdowns) continued his sensational season, fifth-year senior quarterback Jacolby Criswell had one of the best games of his entire college career, completing 19 of 30 passing attempts for 293 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Most recently, during the Tar Heels’ 35-11 annihilation of Florida State in Tallahassee, they limited the Seminoles to only 201 yards of total offense. Again, with the help of an extremely inexperienced but improving offensive line, Criswell was wonderfully efficient (13-for-17 passing, 211 yards, one TD, no interceptions) and Hampton was absolutely incredible, with 32 rushing attempts for 172 yards and four touchdowns, plus three receptions for 93 yards and another score.
This week against Wake Forest, of course, Carolina can’t achieve any goals related to NC State. The Tar Heels also can’t win a bowl game, although with a win over the Demon Deacons they would reach the six victories required for automatic bowl eligibility.
What the Heels could do against Wake is take a big step toward showing they can finish, toward putting their recent late-season slides behind them.
“Our seniors have two (home) games left,” Brown said on his weekly “Mondays With Mack” appearance on 97.9 The Hill. “We haven’t played very well at home. We’ve had our better games on the road. It’s a ‘Blue Out’ (on Saturday night), so we’re asking everybody to wear Carolina Blue.
“We’re asking everybody to get there early. Let’s fill it up. It’s right at a sellout. Let’s send these seniors out right. They’ve played tremendously well for the last two weeks. We can get bowl-eligible this weekend with a win.
“Wake Forest has a good team. They always come in here and play us great. So it should be a great game. It’s on ACC Network, so it’ll be a national TV game. So I just encourage everybody to come out, pick this team up and thank them for the last two weeks, with how hard they’ve played.”
