College Football’s Week 15 (Championship Week):
DG’s “Three To See” Taps Conference Title Games;
Clemson-SMU, Texas-Georgia, Oregon-Penn State
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
Each week during college football’s regular season, we offered a “Pick Six” package of intriguing matchups — three “local” games that included one or more North Carolina-based team and three “national” contests that involved the Atlantic Coast Conference and/or the most prominent intersectional games.
This week, with no North Carolina-based teams in action at any level of major college football, we instead present previews of the three most prominent conference championship games — including the ACC’s Clemson-SMU matchup, which is being played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
Whereas four conference championship games (American, Conference USA, MAC, Sun Belt) aren’t expected to impact the College Football Playoff, and some others (e.g., Arizona State-Iowa State in the Big 12) are viewed as “elimination games” for playoff purposes, there is at least a chance that all six participants in the three contests below will end up in the playoff, either as highly ranked conference champions or via at-large bids from the CFP selection committee.
Week 15: Top “National” Games
Game One
#17 Clemson (9-3) vs. #8 SMU (11-1), Charlotte, Sat., 8 pm (ABC)
Latest Betting Line: Mustangs a two-point favorite
The most important aspect of this matchup, from the broader ACC perspective, is that it would actually help the league if Clemson were to beat SMU in a very close game.
Why? Because Clemson has only one, narrow path to the College Football Playoff — winning this game and making it as the ACC champion. Period. Nobody is getting into this 12-team playoff with four losses, which is what Clemson would have if the Tigers lose on Saturday night.
SMU, on the other hand, obviously would make the playoff with a victory over Clemson, but the Mustangs also would have a very good shot at an at-large bid to the playoff with a close loss to the Tigers. Their record would be 11-2, and their losses in this hypothetical would be by a narrow margin to a 10-win Clemson team and by a narrow margin (18-15) back in early September to a 10-win BYU squad. Remember, too, that the BYU loss came when the Mustangs were still starting Preston Stone at quarterback, before their switch to Kevin Jennings, who ended up playing extremely well and earning third-team All-ACC honors this year.
In terms of the matchup itself, although Clemson has won seven of the last nine ACC football championships, and obviously SMU is brand-new to the ACC, there is nothing at all lopsided about this game.
Remember, the Tigers have been in this title game only once in the past three years, and the Mustangs won the American Athletic Conference championship game just last year, with a lot of their current players contributing to that sensational season, too. Lots of high-caliber players on both teams have played in lots of big-time games.
While the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes got most of the biggest ACC headlines this season, with much of that celebration revolving around sensational quarterback Cam Ward and the Canes’ explosive offense, these two teams — Clemson and SMU — have been by far the two most complete and well-balanced teams in the ACC this season. The Canes haven’t been very good on defense, whereas the Tigers and the Mustangs have been consistently good — and occasionally elite — on both sides of the ball.
SMU’s Jennings and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik were two of the ACC’s four best quarterbacks this season, along with Ward and Syracuse’s Kyle McCord. SMU’s Brashard Smith and Clemson’s Phil Mafah were two of the ACC’s best running backs this season, along with UNC’s Omarion Hampton and a few others.
Both teams are very good on defense, with SMU especially tough against the run and Clemson especially tough against the pass.
One key to the game is which team can run the ball better. SMU has a very good offensive line, a great running back in Smith, and a dual-threat quarterback in Jennings, and Clemson’s defense isn’t quite as dominant in the front seven as it has been in many recent years. Clemson also has a very good offensive line, a great running back in Mafah and a dual-threat quarterback in Klubnik, who actually ran for more yards than Jennings did this season, which may surprise a lot of fans.
The bottom line: There’s a very good chance that this game will unfold in a manner much like Clemson’s game did last week against South Carolina, which went down to the wire at Death Valley before the Gamecocks pulled out a 17-14 victory. It also could be like SMU’s game earlier this year at a defensively outstanding Duke team, when there was a 21-21 tie at the end of regulation before the Mustangs pulled out a 28-27 victory in overtime.
As always, turnovers and big plays are going to matter a lot in this one, and our North Carolina Sports Network crew will be well represented at Bank of America Stadium on Saturday night.
Game Two
#5 Georgia (10-2) vs. #2 Texas (11-1), Atlanta, Sat., 4 pm (ABC)
Latest Betting Line: Longhorns a two-point favorite
This is a rematch of a regular-season game, in which Georgia went to Austin and handed Texas its only defeat of the entire regular season.
The final score was a bit lopsided, 30-15 in favor of the Bulldogs, but the play at the line of scrimmage and among the skill-position players was very even overall, with both defenses limiting both offenses, and fans could see a ton of NFL-caliber talent on both teams.
The key to the first game was Georgia’s ability to create turnovers; the Bulldogs recovered three fumbles and had one interception, often setting up their own offense with short fields. It was extremely telling that, even though Georgia led that game 23-0 at halftime, all five of the Bulldogs’ scoring drives in that first half were very short. In fact, their longest first-half scoring drive was only 34 yards, and both of their first-half touchdowns came after the Longhorns turned it over deep in their own territory.
Looking ahead to Saturday afternoon, there’s going to be an extraordinary amount of pressure — in the physical and emotional senses of that term — on both veteran quarterbacks, Carson Beck of Georgia and Quinn Ewers of Texas, and whoever has the better game is probably going to lead his team to a victory.
The #1 offensive star of the first Georgia-Texas game was Bulldogs running back Trevor Etienne, brother of former Clemson star Travis Etienne. Trevor had 19 carries for 87 yards and three touchdowns in Austin, but he’s been dealing with a rib injury lately. The Bulldogs’ new #1 tailback, Nate Frazier, is really talented but also a true freshman, and he’ll be going up against a really tough Texas defense that picked off Beck three times in the teams’ first matchup.
Meanwhile, Texas couldn’t run the ball at all against Georgia last time, maybe in part because the Longhorns were in catch-up mode for almost all of that game because of their large early deficit. The Bulldogs’ defense also had seven quarterback sacks last time, again, perhaps in part because the Longhorns were so often in obvious passing situations.
The bottom line: These are two of the half-dozen or so best teams in America, and there’s not much difference between them.
So, it’ll probably once again come down to turnovers, big plays and the performance of those veteran quarterbacks. Beck and Ewers both are projected as middle-round picks in next year’s NFL draft, but each has a chance to improve that stock against an elite defense on Saturday afternoon in Atlanta.
Game Three
#3 Penn State (11-1) vs. #1 Oregon (12-0), Indianapolis, Sat., 8 pm (CBS)
Latest Betting Line: Ducks a three-point favorite
How’s this for an interesting theme on championship weekend?
Like SMU in the ACC title game and Texas in the SEC title game, Oregon to trying to capture a conference championship during its first season in its new league, at the expense of one of the traditional powerhouses of that league.
So far, the Ducks have made the biggest splash of any newcomer in any league this season, as coach Dan Lanning’s group is the only remaining undefeated team in the entire FBS ranks, and of course right now that comes with the #1 national ranking.
Oregon beat a big-time Ohio State team that finished the regular season with a 10-2 record. The Ducks handed 11-1 Boise State its only loss of the regular season. They dominated an Illinois team that finished 9-3. They beat Michigan in Ann Arbor by three touchdowns. Their only close game since their 32-31 victory over the Buckeyes a couple months ago was a 16-13 win at Wisconsin, and the Ducks were missing a couple of their best players in that one.
The challenge for Oregon this week is that it will be facing a Penn State team that, like Ohio State, plays some of the best defense in the entire country.
Led by sixth-year quarterback Dillon Gabriel, formerly of UCF and Oklahoma, the Ducks have one of the most sophisticated and accurate passing attacks in the nation. Gabriel, who was named the first-team All-Big Ten quarterback this week, is very good at getting rid of the ball quickly and throwing it very accurately. He completes almost 74 percent of his throws and has 24 touchdown passes against only six interceptions.
Penn State, though, has an elite pass rusher in Abdul Carter, an elite linebacker in Kobe King and elite defensive backs in Jaylen Reed and AJ Harris. Thus, it definitely will be strength-on-strength when Oregon has the ball.
When Penn State has the ball, it likely will be up to veteran quarterback Drew Allar and All-American tight end Tyler Warren to make big plays, because the Nittany Lions have not been nearly as dominant or diverse on that side of the ball.
Other than an impressive win over 9-3 Illinois, Penn State’s best victories this season were nail-biters over mediocre Minnesota and Southern Cal teams, so this game will be by far the biggest challenge of the season for coach James Franklin’s squad.
A final thought on this one: The temperature is expected to be in the mid-30s on Saturday night in Indianapolis.
Oregon probably would want that retractable roof at Lucas Oil Stadium to be closed, to allow for a more free-flowing offensive game. Penn State probably would want to see that retractable roof open, to make it freezing-cold and maximize the chance of a low-scoring defensive grinder of a game.
That “dome factor” may be something to watch in the hours leading up to kickoff, although sometimes there is an announcement earlier in the week, so fans can prepare their attire for the game and coaches can plan accordingly, too.
