College Football’s Week 10:
DG’s “Pick Six” Includes #4 Ohio State-#3 Penn State (7-0),
Duke at #5 Miami (8-0), #18 Pitt (7-0) at #20 SMU, Many More
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
Each week during college football season, we offer a “Pick Six” package of intriguing matchups — three “local” games that include one or more North Carolina-based team and three “national” contests that involve the Atlantic Coast Conference and/or the most prominent intersectional games.
Game One
#4 Ohio State (6-1) at #3 Penn State (7-0), Sat., noon (FOX)
Latest Betting Line: Buckeyes a three-point favorite
As someone who grew up in Pennsylvania and followed Penn State football pretty closely through the Joe Paterno Era and beyond, I can confirm that this was a pretty even rivalry until at least the turn of the century.
More recently, though, Ohio State has become an absolute juggernaut on the gridiron, and the Buckeyes have now won seven straight games — and 11 of the last 12 — head-to-head against the Nittany Lions.
Penn State coach James Franklin posted six Top 25 finishes — including four top-10 campaigns — and one Big Ten championship during his first 10 seasons in Happy Valley. but the Buckeyes are 5-0 against the Lions under sixth-year coach Ryan Day, who is seeking his third Big Ten title and his sixth consecutive top-10 campaign at Ohio State.
Penn State has the better record right now at 7-0, and this game is being played at Beaver Stadium, home of the Nittany Lions, so it says a lot that the Buckeyes nevertheless are a three-point Vegas favorite in this one.
More than the recent history of this rivalry, the betting line may reflect the teams’ schedules to this point.
One could debate the best team Penn State has beaten this year, but the top candidates are 6-2 Illinois, 5-3 Wisconsin and 4-4 Southern Cal, so there’s certainly not a heavyweight in there anywhere.
Ohio State’s lone defeat came by one point at Oregon, which is now 8-0 and ranked #1 in the nation, so it would be difficult for anyone to have a higher-quality loss. At the same time, though, the Buckeyes’ best win to this point is probably over 5-3 Iowa — they dismantled the Hawkeyes 35-7 — and just last week OSU barely got by 5-3 Nebraska in Columbus, 21-17.
A final thought on this one: Neither team puts an extreme amount of weight on the shoulders of its quarterback, thanks to both squads’ strong running games and elite defenses, but Penn State’s starting QB Drew Aller (who, in a fun twist, actually hails from Ohio) is questionable with a knee injury.
Regardless, these are two of the top eight scoring defenses in the country, with the Buckeyes giving up about 12 points per game and the Nittany Lions (14 ppg) not far behind, so nobody will be surprised if this turns out to be an old-fashioned, hard-hitting, low-scoring, Big Ten-style grinder of a game.
Game Two
Duke (6-2) at #5 Miami (8-0), Sat., noon (ABC/ESPN+)
Latest Betting Line: Hurricanes a 20-point favorite
Obviously, Miami is a huge favorite in this game, and virtually nobody is betting on the Blue Devils to win, but there’s at least one fun factor worth watching.
With Heisman Trophy candidate Cam Ward, the preseason and probable postseason ACC Player of the Year at the controls at quarterback, third-year coach Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes have truly the most prolific offense in all of college football. They’re averaging about 47 points per game, and they haven’t scored fewer than 36 points in any of their eight victories this season.
Meanwhile, there has not been a better-coached or more efficient ACC unit this season — in any of the three phases of the game — than the defense of first-year Duke coach Manny Diaz, who came up the coaching ranks as a defensive guru and has led a bunch of great groups on that side of the ball, including as the DC at Penn State over the last couple of years.
These Blue Devils are giving up only 18.6 points per game, which ranks second in the ACC, behind only Cal. Only one Duke opponent has surpassed 21 points this season, and that was SMU, which scored four touchdowns last week in the Mustangs’ 28-27 victory in Durham but also turned the ball over six times.
The bottom line: When Miami has the ball on Saturday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium, those watching are going to see a brilliantly executed and creative offense against a brilliantly game-planned and executed defense.
In addition, of course, this game represents a fascinating homecoming of sorts.
Diaz was born and raised in Miami. He was a three-sport athlete at a Miami high school. His father is the former mayor of the city of Miami. Diaz was the Hurricanes’ defensive coordinator under coach Mark Richt from 2016-18, and he was the Hurricanes’ head coach from 2019-21.
Diaz went 16-9 in ACC games at UM and had a Top 25 campaign in 2020, but he got fired at the end of the 2021 regular season, when the Canes finished 7-5.
Obviously, after his two seasons at Penn State, Duke decided to give Diaz — who’s still only 50 years old — another shot as a head coach, and the early returns in Durham have been mostly fantastic.
The Blue Devils got off to their best start since 1994, and now they’re 6-2 after that nail-biter defeat against SMU. Duke hasn’t been great offensively this season, which may be the biggest reason an upset scenario is highly unlikely, but regardless of what happens this week, the Devils appear to have made a super-smooth coaching transition from Mike Elko to Diaz.
Game Three
#18 Pittsburgh (7-0) at #20 SMU (7-1), Sat., 8 pm (ACCN)
Latest Betting Line: Mustangs a seven-point favorite
This is essentially an ACC-style elimination game between two teams that still have perfect records in conference play.
Along with Clemson and Miami (both also unbeaten in ACC competition), the winner of this one will remain in contention for a trip to the conference title game and maybe even an unexpected bid to the College Football Playoff. The loser of this game still can have a very good season, but it probably won’t be a serious candidate for either of those lofty goals.
Coach Pat Narduzzi is in his 10th season at Pitt, and he’s the only coach at a school other than Clemson or Florida State who has won an ACC football championship since 2010, when coach Frank Beamer led Virginia Tech to the title. Narduzzi’s Panthers went 11-3 in 2021 and took home the program’s first and only ACC crown.
On the SMU side, former Miami assistant coach Rhett Lashlee is in his third season as the head coach of the Mustangs, who are off to a stellar start in the ACC after going 11-3 and winning the American Athletic Conference championship last year.
Both Pitt and SMU have been really good this season at forcing the other team to try to throw the football. The Mustangs and the Panthers are the top two ACC teams in rushing defense, with each giving up less than three yards per carry.
Those defensive trends are going to be put to the test this week, because each team also has both a mobile quarterback and one of the top running backs in the league.
SMU has tailback Brashard Smith, a Miami transfer, and Pitt has Desmond Reid, a former Western Carolina star. Because they’re both also great receivers out of the backfield, Smith and Reid are two of the top three ACC players this season in all-purpose yards, along with UNC’s All-American running back, Omarion Hampton.
At quarterback, meanwhile, SMU’s Kevin Jennings is the more dangerous runner, while Pitt’s Eli Holstein is the more productive passer and has a wider variety of weapons in his receiving corps.
Pitt may be the slightly better team in this one, but SMU is on its home field in Dallas, and the crowd likely will be sky-high by Saturday night, so this should be a fantastic matchup.
NOTE: For the complete Week 10 schedule (including television/streaming options) for all ACC and state of North Carolina teams, please click HERE.