College Football’s Week 11:

DG’s “Pick Six” Includes Duke-NC State,
Cal-Wake, App State, ECU, Wingate, More

By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network

Each week during college football season, we offer a “Pick Six” package of intriguing matchups — three “local” games that include one or more North Carolina-based team and three “national” contests that involve the Atlantic Coast Conference and/or the most prominent intersectional games.

Week 11: Top “Local” Games

Game Four
Duke (6-3) at NC State (5-4), Sat., 3:30 pm (ACCN)
Latest Betting Line: Wolfpack a three-point favorite
Old North State Tailgate!: outside Carter-Finley Stadium from 5:30-7:30 pm

This Duke-NC State rivalry is a classic example of the unfortunate casualties of conference realignment and expansion.

The two schools are located only about 22 miles apart, and they’ve been members of the same leagues — including the ACC — for an eternity. From 1924-2003, a period of 80 consecutive years, the only interruption to their annual matchup came in 1944, when they missed a single game because of World War Two.

However, thanks to repeated rounds of ACC expansion, this stopped being an annual rivalry game about two decades ago. Back when the league split into divisions, remember, the Wolfpack was in the Atlantic, and the Devils were in the Coastal, so they just haven’t faced each other nearly as often lately.

So, for example, even though this is coach Dave Doeren’s 12th season as the NC State head coach, this is only the fourth time in those 12 years that he will face the nearby Blue Devils.

The bottom line in this year’s matchup is that both Duke and State could end up with a mediocre record such as 6-6, or either one could win out and end up with a much prettier record and a decent bowl invitation.

Thus, each team is standing directly in the way of the other, with those things in mind. One is going to take an important step forward Saturday, and the other is going take a step back, toward true mediocrity. Who will it be?

The Wolfpack has been mediocre on both sides of the ball all season, but the Pack just played its most complete game of the entire year — in its 59-28 win over lowly Stanford — and true freshman quarterback CJ Bailey had his third consecutive strong outing: 18-for-20 passing for 234 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Cardinal.

Meanwhile, a Duke team that has been mostly mediocre offensively but truly elite defensively this season under its first-year head coach, Manny Diaz, just had by far its worst defensive game of the season, albeit a 53-31 loss at the hands of the 9-0 and now #4-ranked Miami Hurricanes.

Beyond the usual Xs and Os, there are some fun wrinkles in this one. Diaz was an NC State assistant coach under Chuck Amato for six seasons (2000-05) not crazy long ago, and State’s starting running back, Jordan Waters, was an All-ACC performer for the Blue Devils just last season.

In the end, the #1 key to this game may be how often Diaz’s well-coached and well-executed defense can confuse, pressure and create turnovers from Bailey, who has been excellent lately but also is making only the sixth start of his very young college career, against a Duke defense that presents far more complications than Stanford did at Carter-Finley last week.

Game Five
California (4-4) at Wake Forest (4-4), Sat., 8 pm (ACCN)
Latest Betting Line: Bears a seven-point favorite

Here’s the bottom line in this one: Dave Clawson, now in his 11th year at Wake Forest, is one of the best coaches in that program’s entire history, but he’s currently facing perhaps the most difficult fork in the road of his lengthy tenure.

From 2016-22, Clawson took the Demon Deacons to a school-record seven consecutive bowl games, but if he’s going to get back to a bowl this year — after missing the postseason a year ago — he needs to win this game against California.

Wake is 4-4, a team needs six victories for automatic bowl eligibility, and this final stretch for the Deacons consists of Cal this week, a trip to improving UNC in Chapel Hill, a trip to #4 Miami, and a home game against a very competitive Duke team. Las Vegas probably will have Wake as the underdog in all four tilts, and the analytics mostly agree, but this Cal game may be the most winnable of the four.

The Demon Deacons’ #1 problem all season has been that there’s just not a lot of special talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Deacs are giving up 31 points per game, which is second-worst in the ACC, ahead of only Stanford.

Cal does not have an elite offense. The Bears don’t run the ball very well most weeks, and their quarterback, redshirt sophomore Fernando Mendoza, is more of a really smart game-manager and not as much of a big-numbers guy who can repeatedly beat you downfield with rocket-like throws.

The most interesting part of this game, though, will come when Wake has the ball, because the Deacons have plenty of talent on offense, and Cal is by far #1 in the ACC right now in scoring defense, at only 17 points per game.

So it will be strength versus strength when the Deacs send out their sixth-year senior Hank Bachmeier, who has been the best QB in the Old North State this year, plus Demond Claiborne, one of the best running backs in the ACC this year, and wideouts such as Taylor Morin, one of the better receivers and return men in the ACC this year.

Without a win in this one, Wake likely will be headed for its second consecutive postseason miss, immediately after that history-making seven-year bowl streak, and that might mark the first time in Clawson’s entire tenure that it wouldn’t feel as if the program was headed in the right direction.

P.S. Eighth-year Cal coach Justin Wilcox also faces a difficult road to bowl eligibility, and in his case, falling short could have even more serious repercussions. He has taken the Bears to only three bowls during his tenure, and at 0-4 in the ACC he’s likely about to post his eighth consecutive losing record in conference play.

Game Six
Florida Atlantic (2-6) at East Carolina (4-4), Thurs., 8 pm (ESPN2)
Latest Betting Line: Pirates a seven-point favorite
Old North State Tailgate!: outside Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium from 5:30-7:30 pm

As East Carolina athletic director Jon Gilbert continues his search for a new football coach, in the aftermath of Mike Houston’s dismissal midway through his sixth season leading the Pirates, the university gets this national TV window on Thursday night against a very beatable opponent, and the team continues its pursuit of a bowl game under interim coach Blake Harrell.

(At this Old North State Tailgate stop, members of our NC Sports Network team will be hanging out with our great friends from Pirate Radio in Greenville, at their usual location behind the scoreboard at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.)

In terms of possible bowl eligibility, 4-4 ECU finds itself in a situation very similar to the one described above for Wake Forest.

The Pirates are 4-4, and their remaining games include those against mediocre FAU on Thursday and at mediocre Tulsa next Thursday, but also against much tougher North Texas (on the road) and Navy teams. Bottom line: If you’re going to get to six or more wins, you’d better beat FAU on your home field this week, before heading on the road for the next two games and then hosting the Midshipmen.

The most optimistic recent news for the Pirates is that, after having the absolute worst quarterback play in the entire country last season, and then all sorts of turnovers under starting QB Jake Garcia — the Miami/Missouri transfer — earlier this season, they took a significant step forward offensively last week.

With Michigan State transfer Katin Houser at the controls, during their 56-34 victory over Temple, the Pirates threw the ball around with some flair, as has been their program trademark quite often over the years.

Houser was far from perfect — he completed only 55 percent of his throws and got picked off twice — but he compiled 269 passing yards and connected on five TD passes to five different receivers against the Owls. That’s exactly the sort of show that’s been missing in Greenville over the past two years.

If an improved passing game can complement the Pirates’ occasionally effective rushing attack, led by veteran back Rahjai Harris (sixth in the conference in rushing yards per game), the Pirates should have more than enough to beat FAU and take another big step toward bowl eligibility.

Week 11 Bonus Notes!

FBS: When 4-4 Appalachian State visits 4-4 Coastal Carolina on Thursday (8 pm, ESPN), the Mountaineers will be seeking their third straight backs-to-the-wall victory. With the future of fifth-year head coach Shawn Clark likely hanging in the balance, App State recently posted back-to-back home wins over Georgia State and Old Dominion to finally elevate its record to the .500 level. This trip to Coastal, in another prominent national TV window, is yet another must-win for the Mountaineers, because their final two games look to be difficult ones: home against James Madison and at long-time rival Georgia Southern, which right now looks to be in great position to end up in the Sun Belt championship game. A road win over Coastal on Thursday obviously would give the Mountaineers a three-game winning streak, and it could give them the confidence boost and momentum they’re likely to need if they’re going to make more hay during that more imposing schedule later. …

FCS: Three in-state squads will get shots at nationally ranked opponents as heavy underdogs. Campbell (3-6) is hosting #9 Richmond (7-2), North Carolina A&T (1-8) is heading to #11 Villanova (7-2), and Elon (3-6) is visiting #21 William & Mary (6-3). …

D2: #24 Wingate (7-1) has entered the Old North State spotlight. When the Bulldogs went to archrival Lenoir-Rhyne and beat the 12th-ranked Bears 14-10 last Saturday, they clinched a spot in the South Atlantic Conference title game. Regardless of the outcome of its game against Newberry (3-5) this Saturday, Wingate — as the Piedmont Division champion — will host the Mountain Division champion (most likely Carson-Newman) on Nov. 16 at Irwin Belk Stadium, with the South Atlantic championship at stake. … Johnson C Smith (8-1), which fell from the national rankings after losing at home to Fayetteville State last week, still has a chance to post one of the best records in the 133-year history of its program. The Golden Bulls take on Livingstone (5-4) in their regular-season finale.

NOTE: For the complete Week 11 schedule (including television/streaming options) for all ACC and state of North Carolina teams, please click HERE.