College Football’s Week 13:
DG’s “Pick Six” Begins With UNC, NC State, Duke,
Also Includes App State, ECU, Division Two Playoffs
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
Each week during college football season, we offer a “Pick Six” package of intriguing matchups — three “local” games that include one or more North Carolina-based team and three “national” contests that involve the Atlantic Coast Conference and/or the most prominent intersectional games.
Week 13: Top “Local” Games
Game Four
North Carolina (6-4) at Boston College (5-5), Sat., noon (The CW)
Latest Betting Line: Tar Heels a three-point favorite
North Carolina’s coaches and players haven’t assured themselves of anything more than a mediocre campaign just yet, but they certainly deserve a lot of credit for turning their season around.
The Tar Heels were 3-4 and had lost four consecutive games when they had an open date in mid-October. It’s a credit to coach Mack Brown, his staff and team leaders such as wide receiver JJ Jones and defensive end Kaimon Rucker that the Heels stuck together and now have won three straight contests (Virginia, Florida State, Wake Forest) heading into their final two games, against Boston College and NC State.
The keys to Carolina’s resurgence have been the absolutely sensational play of All-American running back Omarion Hampton, who’s #2 nationally with 142 rushing yards per game, the return from injury of Rucker on defense — the Tar Heels’ numbers with and without Rucker offer a truly striking contrast — and the gradual improvement of the Heels’ extremely inexperienced quarterback and offensive line.
Jacolby Criswell is a fifth-year senior, but between his four years at Carolina and one at Arkansas, this is the first time he’s been the #1 guy. He started this season as the Heels’ third-stringer, and he’s made the most of his opportunity after the injury to Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson way back in the season opener at Minnesota.
On the offensive line, veteran guard Willie Lampkin is going to make some All-America teams, and the brand-new guys around him — all first-time starters at the college level — are better now than they were in September, which is another thing that reflects well on the coaching staff and players, because that line could have been a season-long disaster.
The Tar Heels are a slight favorite against Boston College, and Carolina has played very well on the road this season overall, but this is a tricky matchup for several reasons.
For starters, first-year BC coach Bill O’Brien is a very respected and accomplished football mind. This is a guy entrusted with key staff positions for many years at the NFL level by legendary New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick and someone hired just last season by legendary coach Nick Saban as the Crimson Tide’s offensive coordinator.
Two weeks ago, in maybe the Eagles’ best game of the season, they just absolutely ran all over a pretty good Syracuse team in a 37-31 BC victory, with two different running backs going well over 100 yards.
Second, BC recently made a change at quarterback. Thomas Castellanos was an incredible athlete for the Eagles over these past couple years, but he just couldn’t execute what O’Brien was looking for in the passing game, so he was demoted. Castellanos already has indicated he will enter the transfer portal in December.
The new QB is Florida International transfer Grayson James, who’s not nearly as much of a running threat as Castellanos but may prove to be a more capable passer in the Eagles’ offensive scheme. James wasn’t great last week, in the Eagles’ 38-28 loss at SMU, but he’s expected to improve with each passing week, since he’s finally getting first-team repetitions in practice.
Finally, BC has one of the top candidates for the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year honor, All-American accolades and anything else you want to throw his way.
Eagles defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku (“Ezz-uh-rah-koo”) is fourth in the country in sacks and just an absolute menace, and he’ll be playing against a UNC team whose offensive tackles have had trouble with less talented pass rushers all season.
Game Five
Virginia Tech (5-5) at Duke (7-3), Sat., 8 pm (ACCN)
Latest Betting Line: Hokies a three-point favorite
These two teams are mirror images of each other in at least one sense. They’re two of the five best defenses in the ACC, but on a week-to-week basis, neither is sure exactly what to expect from its offense, and that’s especially been the case for the Hokies this season.
All five of Virginia Tech’s losses this year have been to quality opponents — Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Miami, Syracuse and Clemson are all going to be bowl teams — and all five losses were by 10 points or fewer, with that Tech defense keeping the Hokies in pretty much every game.
Tech has one of the best defensive tackles in the ACC in Duke transfer Aeneas Peebles (who’ll have a homecoming of sorts at Wallace Wade Stadium) and one of the best defensive ends in the ACC in Antwaun Powell-Ryland.
Peebles and Powell-Ryland are surrounded by a very well-coached group on that side of the ball under third-year Tech head coach Brent Pry, who was a highly respected defensive coordinator at Penn State before taking the top job in Blacksburg.
First-year Duke coach Manny Diaz, meanwhile, was a highly respected defensive coordinator at Penn State before taking over the Blue Devils’ program last December. The Devils also are extremely well-coached on defense, so nobody should be surprised if this matchup becomes a low-scoring grinder.
At 7-3, Duke still has a shot at what would be just the second 10-win season in the history of the program. That is an absolutely astonishing possibility, especially when you consider how much talent the Blue Devils lost to the transfer portal after coach Mike Elko left to take the Texas A&M job and how little time Diaz had to add portal talent.
Yet here the Devils are, staring at the possibility of a 9-3 regular season, with Virginia Tech this week’s opponent and a struggling Wake Forest team still ahead in the regular-season finale. Neither game will be easy, but both games are very winnable, and regardless of where this season goes from here, Diaz and his staff and players deserve a lot of credit for maximizing the talent on hand.
Texas transfer Maalik Murphy has been mostly solid at quarterback, veterans Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol have been sensational at wide receiver, and New Mexico State transfer Star Thomas has been a productive physical presence at running back. Meanwhile, there are playmakers all over that Duke defense, including Princeton transfer Ozzie Nicholas and Youngstown State transfer Alex Howard at linebacker and junior Chandler Rivers at cornerback, among others.
Game Six
NC State (5-5) at Georgia Tech (6-4), Thurs., 7:30 pm (ESPN)
Latest Betting Line: Yellow Jackets a nine-point favorite
Even though the Wolfpack has only two games left in the regular season, imagine how different the conversation will be in December around 12th-year coach Dave Doeren if he wins these last two games — at Georgia Tech on Thursday night and at UNC next weekend — compared to if he loses both games.
If this NC State team finishes 7-5, and maybe wins its bowl game to get to 8-5, that would be the continuation of a pretty good theme, right?
No, Doeren hasn’t been able to get the Pack to the proverbial next level, but it would still be 10 bowl invitations in the last 11 years — in the entire 17-team ACC, only Clemson has been to the postseason more often during that stretch — and the coach would be right at his average of about eight wins per year over these last 11 years.
That would be the sign of a very stable, solid program. The highs haven’t been extremely high, but the extreme lows have been few and far between.
Contrast that snapshot to the one in which the Wolfpack finishes 5-7 (including a loss to the hated Tar Heels) and misses the postseason entirely, which definitely could happen. State would finish 2-6 in conference play, and Doeren’s ACC record would be six games below .500 over the course of his entire 12-year tenure. That definitely would leave a lot of wolves howling in the NC State fan base.
Regarding Thursday night, it will be the Yellow Jackets’ final home game of the season and thus their Senior Day, so there will be a lot of emotion tied to that fact. There will be additional emotion because it’s a nationally televised game without a lot of football-related competition on a Thursday night. There may even be one more emotional boost for the fan base because the Jackets are coming off their 28-23 upset of previously undefeated Miami.
Georgia Tech is a very physical team under third-year head coach Brent Key, a former All-ACC offensive lineman for the Yellow Jackets who prefers to try to run the ball down your throat more than anything else.
Miami’s defense simply could not get off the field against Tech, even though the Hurricanes eventually knew the Jackets were running the ball the overwhelming majority of the time.
One of the trickiest wrinkles in this State-Tech game is for Wolfpack defensive coordinator Tony Gibson to prepare his guys for two quarterbacks.
The regular Tech starter, veteran Haynes King, is a dangerous dual-threat guy, but he has an injury that does not prevent him from running — he had 20 carries for 93 yards and a TD against Miami — but has complicated his throwing ability at times. The other Tech quarterback, Aaron Philo, has been executing a more complete version of the Yellow Jackets’ playbook, with more run-pass balance, and he rarely runs himself.
That means the Wolfpack’s preparation and execution on defense, which will be tied directly to whichever Tech quarterback is in the game at any given time, will be central to the team’s hopes for a road upset on Thursday night.
Week 12 Bonus Notes!
FBS: East Carolina (6-4) will try to extend its record to 4-0 under interim coach Blake Harrell as the Pirates visit North Texas (5-5) as a three-point underdog. … Appalachian State (4-5) will play its final home game of the season as a seven-point underdog to James Madison (8-2), with the future of fifth-year head coach Shawn Clark seemingly hanging in the balance. … Wake Forest (4-6) is a 24-point underdog at #8 Miami (9-1), with a Demon Deacons loss assuring their second straight losing season under 11th-year coach Dave Clawson, right after a school-record streak of seven consecutive bowl games. … Charlotte (3-7), playing under interim coach Tim Brewster after this week’s dismissal of second-year head coach Biff Poggi, is a three-point favorite at Florida Atlantic (2-8).
FCS: Western Carolina (6-5) and NC Central (7-3) have very winnable road trips, at Samford (4-6) and Delaware State (1-10), respectively, to complete their regular-season schedules. With victories on Saturday, the Catamounts and Eagles both would be candidates to be selected for at-large bids to the FCS playoffs, although there’s a very good chance that no North Carolina-based squad will make the 24-team FCS bracket this year.
Division Two: #17 Wingate (9-1) will host Virginia Union (8-3) on Saturday at Irwin Belk Stadium. The Bulldogs are #5 nationally in scoring defense under first-year head coach Rashaan Jordan, formerly their long-time defensive coordinator, at only 10 points per game. Wingate, which beat Carson-Newman 28-13 last Saturday to claim the outright South Atlantic Conference championship for just the third time in program history, is on a seven-game winning streak and hasn’t lost a home game this season. … #15 Lenoir-Rhyne (9-2) will visit #12 West Alabama (9-1) on Saturday. The Bears, who historically are the most successful Division Two program in North Carolina, advanced all the way to the national semifinals in last year’s playoffs under coach Mike Jacobs, who now leads an outstanding Mercer team (9-2, #9 in the national rankings) at the FCS level. Under first-year head coach Doug Socha, Lenoir-Rhyne hopes to defeat West Alabama for the first time in program history, after falling short in both 2017 and 2018.
NOTE: For the complete Week 13 schedule (including television/streaming options) for all ACC and state of North Carolina teams, please click HERE.
