College Football’s Week Four:
DG’s “Pick 6” Includes Tennessee-OU,
NCSU-Clemson, Aggie-Eagle Classic, More
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
Each week during college football season, we offer a “Pick Six” package of intriguing matchups — three “local” games that include one or more North Carolina-based team and three “national” contests that involve the Atlantic Coast Conference and/or the most prominent intersectional games.
Week Four: Top “National” Games
Game One
#6 Tennessee (3-0) at #15 Oklahoma (3-0), 7:30 pm (ABC/ESPN+)
Latest Betting Line: Volunteers a seven-point favorite
ESPN’s College GameDay crew will be in Norman, Okla., for this one, and understandably so. This is by far the highest-profile matchup of the extended college football weekend.
Both teams are undefeated. The Volunteers have an exciting young quarterback in Nico Iamaleava (“ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va”) and have been absolutely annihilating their opponents, including NC State in Charlotte. It’s also the first league game ever for Oklahoma, a frequent Big 12 superpower historically, as a new member of the mighty Southeastern Conference.
Oh, by the way, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel is a former Oklahoma star quarterback and was the Heisman Trophy runner-up (to Florida State QB Chris Weinke) back in 2000, while wearing the OU uniform. Heupel later spent nine straight seasons (2006-14) wearing the program’s colors as a high-profile assistant (quarterbacks coach, then offensive coordinator) under legendary Sooners coach Bob Stoops. But Stoops declined to renew Heupel’s contract in 2015 because he wanted to hire Lincoln Riley, then a rising star in the assistant coaching ranks at East Carolina.
Besides many in the North Carolina Sports Network audience seeing the Vols in Charlotte just two weeks ago at Bank of America Stadium, where they trampled the Wolfpack 51-10, there’s another somewhat local angle to this one.
Long-time Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables is now in his third season as the head coach at Oklahoma. He went 6-7 in Year One, then 10-3 last season with a Top 25 national finish. Now he has to figure out a way to win in the SEC, which is typically a better and deeper conference than the Big 12 on the gridiron.
Two weeks ago, the Sooners struggled at home before beating Big 12 member Houston 16-12. Meanwhile, Tennessee has outscored its three foes by an average score of 64-4, which is probably why the Vols are favored by a touchdown in this one, even as the road team against a nationally ranked and unbeaten opponent.
Game Two
Georgia Tech (3-1) at #19 Louisville (2-0), 3:30 pm (ESPN2)
Latest Betting Line: Cardinals a 10-point favorite
Among the most interesting aspects of this game is that, unlike the ACC’s other two ranked teams (#9 Miami and #21 Clemson), #19 Louisville hasn’t beaten anyone of even moderate significance this season.
In fact, it may not be much of an exaggeration to say that the Cardinals are the only ACC team where even the most astute observers have absolutely no idea who they are or how good they might be. The Cards did crush both of their first two opponents, but those teams were the definition of Cupcake City: Austin Peay and Jacksonville State, who are a combined 0-6 so far this season.
If Louisville can beat a pretty solid-looking and well-coached Georgia Tech team, just one year after coach Jeff Brohm took the Cardinals to the ACC championship game in his first year back at his alma mater, that would add one more intriguing contender to the 2024 conference race.
However, whereas Georgia Tech knows it has one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the ACC in Haynes King, Louisville merely thinks and hopes it has its QB answer in the form of seventh-year senior Tyler Shough (“Shuck”).
A highly recruited prep star from Arizona, Shough spent three seasons at Oregon, then three seasons at Texas Tech, and now this is his first year with the Cardinals. He had only 20 career starts prior to this season, compiling a 13-7 record in those games, and he has been injured pretty much every time he has been thrust into a starting role.
Brohm, a former Louisville quarterback himself and something of a QB whisperer during his coaching career, has said Shough’s former teams asked him to run quite a bit, which contributed to his injury problems. The Cardinals are instead asking Shough to be much more of a pocket passer and to distribute the ball to talented skill players such as wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks, an Alabama transfer and former prep All-American who’s off to a great start (13 receptions, 172 yards, one touchdown) with the Cardinals.
The metrics and analytics seem to like Louisville to win this game convincingly, and at last glance it was a 10-point spread in favor of the Cardinals. However, it’s just as easy to see this as a pretty even matchup, one where everyone will learn a lot more about whether either of these teams is a true contender for the ACC title game.
Game Three
California (3-0) at Florida State (0-3), 7 pm (ESPN2)
Latest Betting Line: Seminoles a 2-point favorite
There are interesting stories on both sides of this matchup, although Florida State’s various woes already have been deeply explored, both here and elsewhere.
California coach Justin Wilcox, who is a really smart guy and was a fascinating guest on the David Glenn Show in the preseason, is in his eighth year as the head coach of the Bears. Just for perspective, the only ACC head football coaches who have been with their teams longer are Dabo Swinney at Clemson, Dave Doeren at NC State, Dave Clawson at Wake Forest, and Pat Narduzzi at Pitt.
This may sound strange to say for an eighth-year coach, but Wilcox has never finished with more than eight wins in a season, and he’s never had even a winning record in conference play. Unsurprisingly, with that in mind, he often was mentioned during the offseason and preseason as a likely hot-seat candidate this year.
Well, now the Bears are off to their first 3-0 start since 2019, they’ve posted one of the most impressive road victories (21-14 at Auburn) of any ACC team so far this season, they’re playing maybe the best defense of Wilcox’s entire tenure, and they’re off to this excellent start despite only minimal contributions from their best player.
Cal running back Jaydn Ott, a Freshman All-American in 2022 and a first-team All-Pac-12 selection in 2023, has been limited by an ankle injury so far this season. His backup, sophomore Jaivian Thomas, is averaging almost eight yards per carry and ranks among the ACC’s rushing leaders with 80.3 yards per game.
As for Florida State, and as discussed previously, the starting point for understanding the Seminoles’ miserable start is one simple, uncomplicated fact: 11 players from their 2023 ACC title team are on National Football League rosters right now.
That’s an absolutely massive one-year exodus of high-level talent to the professional ranks from any college team. While nobody predicted a winless FSU team in late September, it was unrealistic for anyone to expect that there wasn’t going to be some sort of significant adjustment period in the aftermath of that personnel exodus.
Now FSU is 0-3 and has been absolutely horrendous on the offensive side of the ball, where the Seminoles are averaging only 15.3 points per game, which is by far (by 10 points!) the worst number in the ACC.
Unlike last year, when they had Jordan Travis (now on an NFL roster), the Seminoles don’t have a dual-threat quarterback. DJ Uiagalelei had a good year at Oregon State last season, but even at his best he’s never been a truly special player.
Unlike last year, when the Seminoles had Trey Benson (now in the NFL), they may not have a special running back on the depth chart. Unlike last year, when they had wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson and tight end Jaheim Bell — all three, you guessed it, now in the NFL — they may not have a wide receiver or tight end who’s ready to be a difference-maker on a consistent basis.
Explaining FSU’s poor offensive line play may be the biggest head-scratcher of all, given the presence of multi-year starters at both tackle positions and center, the three 0-line positions that college coaches usually find most challenging to fill.
That offensive line, along with a talented FSU defense that has created only one turnover in its first three games, must play better against a Cal team that’s playing with great confidence right now.
There’s not a person on the planet who would have picked Cal to start 4-0 and FSU to start 0-4 this year, but here we are. Clearly, the burden is on FSU’s defense to create some turnovers and FSU’s offensive line to create some holes and more time for DJU if the Seminoles are going to avoid a new and unimaginable level of disaster.
Thursday Night Bonus
South Alabama (1-2) at Appalachian State (2-1), 7:30 pm (ESPN)
Latest Betting Line: Mountaineers a seven-point favorite
There are only so many exclusive television windows in college football, and Appalachian State — one of the sport’s crown jewels, nestled in the mountains of North Carolina — will have a chance to shine in one of them this Thursday.
The 2-1 Mountaineers, who have the sixth-most victories among Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) programs since 2014, when they made the jump from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) ranks, host 1-2 South Alabama at Kidd Brewer Stadium in ESPN’s exclusive Thursday night window.
The game is the Sun Belt Conference opener for both teams. App State, which has played in two of the league’s past three title games under fifth-year head coach Shawn Clark, was the preseason pick to capture the East Division again this year.
The Mountaineers are led by QB Joey Aguilar, the Sun Belt’s preseason Offensive Player of the Year, who threw for a career-high 424 passing yards last week in App State’s 21-19 victory at East Carolina. Aguilar is the only returning FBS quarterback who had 33-plus touchdown passes and 3,700-plus passing yards in 2023.
Last month, Kidd Brewer Stadium was listed #23 on ESPN’s list of the top 25 college football stadiums in the country. Thirteen of the top 16 crowds in the stadium’s history have occurred since the start of 2022, and all 14 home crowds in that stretch have eclipsed 30,000. The Mountaineers led all FBS schools in percentage of stadium capacity filled (115.8%) last season.
Since 2014, the only FBS programs with more victories than the Mountaineers’ 97 are Alabama (130), Clemson (120), Georgia (117), Ohio State (117) and Oklahoma (105). Among Group of Five programs, the only schools that are even close to App State’s victory total in that same period are Boise State (95) and Memphis (91).
