College Football’s Week Five:
DG’s “Pick 6” Includes Duke-Carolina Rivalry,
Plus Key Games For NCSU, App State, Wake, ECU
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
Each week during college football season, we offer a “Pick Six” package of intriguing matchups — three “local” games that include one or more North Carolina-based team and three “national” contests that involve the Atlantic Coast Conference and/or the most prominent intersectional games.
Week Five: Top “Local” Games
Game Four
North Carolina (3-1) at Duke (4-0), 4 pm (ESPN2)
Latest Betting Line: Blue Devils a two-point favorite
Ever since the legendary 1989 Duke-Carolina matchup, when the Steve Spurrier-led Blue Devils spanked the Mack Brown-led Tar Heels 41-0 and then famously (or infamously) posed for a post-game team photo in front of the Kenan Stadium scoreboard, Brown has absolutely owned the Devils.
In the immediate aftermath of that 1989 game, Carolina went on an unprecedented (for either side) 13-game winning streak in the rivalry, including eight straight victories under Brown before he left UNC to take the Texas job after the 1997 regular season. Since Brown’s return to Chapel Hill, before the 2019 campaign, the Heels have won all five of their matchups against Duke.
There’s no doubt that UNC also has dominated this gridiron rivalry historically, winning almost two-thirds of the time, but on this occasion Duke has the better record, albeit a 4-0 mark against inferior opponents. Perhaps more importantly, the Blue Devils appear to be playing with more confidence under their first-year head coach Manny Diaz, especially on defense.
Quick reminder: Another long-time defensive coordinator, Mike Elko, was a defense-oriented coach for his two years as the top guy in Durham before leaving for the Texas A&M job. Diaz, too, is a defense-oriented coach; he was Brown’s coordinator at Texas from 2011-13 (before getting fired), and over the past two years, he directed outstanding defenses at Penn State.
Unsurprisingly, the Blue Devils have had well-constructed plans on that side of the ball in every game this season, and they’ve been executing those plans extremely well, yielding an average of only 15 points per game.
However, it’s also fair to say that none of Duke’s 2024 victims — Elon, Northwestern, UConn and Middle Tennessee State — is known for its dynamic offense. In addition, those opponents’ collective record is 6-10, and neither Duke nor any of those four foes has defeated anyone of significance so far this season.
Because UNC has an All-American running back in Omarion Hampton, and because fifth-year senior quarterback Jacolby Criswell energized the Tar Heels’ passing attack as they put up 50 points last week, this likely will be the toughest challenge of Duke’s season so far.
Carolina, meanwhile, is coming off that embarrassing 70-50 home loss to James Madison. Perhaps the Tar Heels got a much-needed wake-up call, or perhaps JMU exposed a lot of weaknesses that Duke and others will try to take advantage of, too.
There were some irresponsible post-game reports that Brown had chosen to resign after the JMU game (he merely told the players he would resign if he couldn’t help them turn things around), but the strangest part about the Tar Heels’ 3-1 start is the wacky, unpredictable dichotomy between their offense and defense.
In their three victories, the Tar Heels’ defense and special teams were mostly good, and their offense — besides Hampton — was mostly holding them back.
In their one loss, obviously, that script completely and totally flipped. The Heels somehow put up 50 points with Criswell — a third-stringer who had never started a single game against an FBS opponent in his entire five-year career — playing behind an extremely inexperienced offensive line, which suggests very good coaching by the offensive staff heading into the JMU game.
Yet the UNC defense absolutely melted down against — and this part makes it especially crazy and hard to figure out — a James Madison team that had managed only 13 points in its previous game, against Gardner-Webb, an FCS opponent. That suggests a failing grade for first-year UNC defensive coordinator Geoff Collins and his entire group of players and assistants.
How does JMU, with essentially the same personnel, go directly from 13 points against Gardner-Webb to 70 points, the most ever scored against the Tar Heels at Kenan Stadium? Credit to the Dukes, of course, but UNC also looked poorly prepared — there was literally a major missed assignment on the first defensive snap of the game — and the defensive front somehow lost the battle in the trenches to a Group of Five team, in the end giving up more than 600 yards of total offense.
There are two really good running backs in this game: Hampton for UNC, of course, and Star Thomas, a New Mexico State transfer, for Duke.
There are also two up-and-down quarterbacks in this game: Maalik Murphy of Duke, the much-discussed Texas transfer, and Criswell from Carolina, who — like Murphy — throws the ball into trouble areas too often but also has made some really good throws downfield.
Quarterback play likely will go a long way toward determining the outcome here. Beyond the obvious burdens on Murphy and Criswell, that also means that whichever team protects its quarterback better, and whichever team harasses and disrupts the opposing QB more frequently, will win. Neither Duke nor Carolina has an above-average offensive line right now, so whichever defensive front seven can better capitalize in that area is probably going to lead its team to victory.
UNC really misses its star edge rusher, fifth-year senior Kaimon Rucker, who has been out with an injury; as this is written, it’s still not clear when he’ll return.
Duke is the favorite here because the Blue Devils are at home and because they’ve been more consistent on both sides of the ball.
P.S. The “Old North State Tailgate and Traveling Sports Circus,” our mobile, state-wide carnival that includes tasty food, music, interviews, tents, prizes, giveaways and our popular Football Toss Challenge, will be set up near Wallace Wade Stadium in the hours leading up to this 4 pm kickoff.
Game Five
Liberty (4-0) at Appalachian State (2-2), 3:30 pm (ESPN+)
Latest Betting Line: Flames a three-point favorite
(UPDATE: This game has been canceled because of impact of Hurricane Helene.)
On the surface, this is a fascinating battle between one of the most consistently successful college football programs of the last decade, in App State, and one of the sport’s most consistently successful and fast-rising head coaches, in 47-year-old Jamey Chadwell.
Chadwell is now in his second season at Liberty after having great success with Charleston Southern at the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) level and then with Coastal Carolina at the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) level. His teams won conference titles in 2015, 2016, 2020 and 2023.
Remember the story of currently injured NC State quarterback Grayson McCall, who was a three-time Player of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference? Chadwell was McCall’s coach and quarterbacks guru with the Chanticleers.
Last season, in Chadwell’s debut at Liberty, the Flames went 13-1, won the Conference USA title and played in the Fiesta Bowl. Chadwell was the conference’s Coach of the Year, a Tennessee transfer — quarterback Kaidon Salter — was the league’s Most Valuable Player, and a Wake Forest transfer — running back Quinton Cooley — was the CUSA Newcomer of the Year.
All of those guys are back with the Flames, and they’ve been key parts of their 4-0 start, including a 35-24 win over East Carolina last week in Lynchburg.
App State was embarrassed at home last Thursday night on national television, falling 48-14 to South Alabama at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Earlier this season, remember, the Mountaineers also got waxed, 66-20, by Clemson at Death Valley, although that could happen to a lot of teams, as NC State found out the hard way last week.
App State is one of the winningest programs in the entire FBS ranks over the past decade; the only programs with more victories during that period are — in order — Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame.
That’s some really impressive company for the Mountaineers, obviously, and they’re usually especially difficult to beat at The Rock, which is a great place to watch a college football game and where the Mountaineers have led the entire nation in terms of attendance compared to the stadium’s capacity (way over 100 percent).
This year’s Mountaineers, though, so far have looked more like the coach Shawn Clark team that went only 6-6 two years ago — that was only the Mountaineers’ second non-winning season in the past 30 years — and less like his 2021 and 2023 teams, which won a combined 19 games and made it to the Sun Belt championship game both years.
The #1 area of concern against Liberty is the Mountaineers’ defense, which is giving up a Sun Belt-worst 36 points per game and almost six yards per rushing attempt. That unit just couldn’t get either the Clemson offense or, more alarmingly, the South Alabama offense off the field. That will have to change if the Mountaineers are going to spring an upset on Saturday afternoon.
Game Six
Northern Illinois (2-1) at NC State (2-2), noon (The CW)
Latest Betting Line: Wolfpack a six-point favorite
This one has several compelling angles.
First, NC State leader Dave Doeren has been a head coach at only two places, and now those two universities are playing each other head-to-head for just the second time in history.
It’s easy to forget, but Doeren went 11-3 and 12-1 at Northern Illinois back in 2011 and 2012, winning the Mid-American Conference championship both years. That’s what caught the attention of then-NC State athletic director Debbie Yow more than a decade ago, when she hired Doeren to be Tom O’Brien’s successor in Raleigh.
Second, this year’s Northern Illinois team beat then-#5 Notre Dame 16-14 in South Bend less than three weeks ago and was actually ranked in the national Top 25 before being upset, in overtime, at home by Buffalo last week.
Third, after pretty high preseason expectations, the Wolfpack has played four games this season and hasn’t looked great in any of them.
The Pack was embarrassed 51-10 by Tennessee in Charlotte and annihilated 59-35 last week at Clemson. Reminder: The Tigers led 45-7 at halftime in that game at Death Valley, and that halftime score was a better reflection of reality than the final score, which came only after Clemson coach Dabo Swinney called off the dogs.
Even during its close wins over Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech, the Pack didn’t look at all special, and of course the team lost its starting quarterback, McCall, to an injury along the way.
True freshman quarterback CJ Bailey survived the virtually impossible task he inherited at Clemson, although he turned it over twice and was sacked twice, and his better numbers came against the Clemson backups, after the game had been decided.
The most surprising and disappointing aspect of NC State’s season has been that the Wolfpack just hasn’t been very good in the trenches so far. That’s where Doeren’s teams have been the most consistent over this past decade-plus, and right now neither the offensive line nor the defensive front seven has been a bright spot.
What was our #1 reason, back in August, not to include the Pack among the ACC’s true contenders this season? The departure of dominating linebacker and emotional fireplug Payton Wilson, one of the best players in NC State football history.
The Wolfpack’s best defensive players include linemen Davin Vann and Fred Cleveland and linebackers Caden Fordham and Sean Brown. Those guys and/or others need to make big plays against a Northern Illinois offense that hasn’t been great offensively, just to take some pressure off a Wolfpack offense that hasn’t been able to find itself so far this season and is facing an NIU defense that looked pretty good through its first three games.
Final Week Five Thoughts
Although their games will be in lesser spotlights, 1-2 Wake Forest and 2-2 East Carolina face challenging opponents under difficult circumstances in very important games on Saturday.
Coach Dave Clawson and the Demon Deacons are coming off an open week, but their most recent outing was an embarrassing 40-6 home loss to #6 Ole Miss. Coach Mike Houston and the Pirates are coming off back-to-back defeats against App State and Liberty.
The bottom line for Wake and ECU, two teams that missed the postseason last year with 4-8 and 2-10 records, respectively, isn’t complicated, but it’s not easy, either:
A Bowl Should Be The Goal.
If Wake Forest is going to get to six or more wins this season, it needs to beat 2-1 Louisiana — a program that’s had six consecutive bowl seasons — in Winston-Salem. The Deacons are a three-point favorite.
If ECU is going to get to six or more wins this season, it needs to beat 2-2 UTSA — a program that’s averaged 10 wins over the last three seasons — in Greenville. The Pirates are a four-point favorite.
There’s just not much wiggle room on the schedule for either the Demon Deacons or the Pirates, with even tougher opponents and tricky road trips looming, so it’s important for both teams to take another step in the right direction with wins on Saturday.
