ESPN’s Football Power Index Projects
ACC Records/Results (Lots Of 7-5 To 5-7)
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
ESPN’s “Football Power Index,” an analytics tool used to provide preseason and in-season forecasts based on 20,000 simulations, is not particularly optimistic about the Atlantic Coast Conference this year.
For example, the FPI’s preseason national top 10 excludes the ACC entirely. While the numbers and rankings can change daily, the preseason top 10 currently consists of six Southeastern Conference teams, three Big Ten teams and Notre Dame (still an independent in football).
FPI Preseason National Top 10
1. Georgia, SEC — 26.8 (projected points above average FBS team)
2. Oregon^, Big Ten — 24.5
3. Texas^, SEC — 22.9
4. Ohio State, Big Ten — 22.2
5. Alabama, SEC — 21.9
6. Penn State, Big Ten — 19.8
7. Notre Dame, independent — 19.0
8. Oklahoma^, SEC — 17.2
9. Tennessee, SEC — 16.6
10. Missouri, SEC — 15.4
^—first season in new conference
The ACC does have five teams ranked in the FPI preseason top 25: Florida State (#11), Clemson (#15), Louisville (#21), Miami (#23) and newcomer SMU (#25). The Mustangs finished 11-3 and captured the American Athletic Conference championship last season.
Each team’s FPI rating consists of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.
In the preseason, the FPI components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure. That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of teams’ opponents) beginning in Week One, and then the weight of that data declines as the season progresses.
Over the last 10 seasons, the FPI favorite has won about 75 percent of FBS-versus-FBS games, which is comparable to the success rate of Las Vegas’ closing lines. During the past four seasons, the FPI rate has risen to 77 percent, and in games in which the FPI and Vegas line differed, the FPI favorite won 55 percent of the time.
Preseason FPI 2024 ACC Record Projections
(National FBS Rank In Parentheses)
9-4 — Florida State (11)
9-4 — Clemson (15)
8-4 — Louisville (21)
8-4 — Miami (23)
8-4 — SMU (25)
8-4 — NC State 28)
7-5 — UNC (42)
7-5 — California (43)
7-5 — Virginia Tech (50)
6-6 — Duke (52)
6-6 — Pitt (53)
6-6 — Boston College (58)
6-6 — Syracuse (70)
5-7 — Georgia Tech (54)
5-7 — Stanford (59)
5-7 — Wake Forest (71)
5-7 — Virginia (72)
Preseason FPI ACC Title Chances
26.2% — Florida State
19.3% — Clemson
12.0% — Louisville
9.9% — Miami
9.0% — SMU
7.5% — NC State
4.3% — UNC
2.6% — California
2.5% — Virginia Tech
<2% — Pitt
<2% — Duke
<2% — Georgia Tech
<2% — Boston College
<2% — Stanford
<2% — Syracuse
<2% — Wake Forest
<2% — Virginia
Preseason FPI College Football Playoff Bid Chances
35.9% — Florida State
26.9% — Clemson
18.3% — Louisville
18.2% — Miami
16.6% — SMU
13.9% — NC State
8.0% — UNC
5.2% — California
4.3% — Virginia Tech
3.1% — Pitt
2.7% — Duke
<2% — Georgia Tech
<2% — Boston College
<2% — Stanford
<2% — Syracuse
<2% — Wake Forest
<2% — Virginia