UNC Down To Three Possible Paths
To Secure NCAA Tournament Trip
(Only Four Misses In Past 50 Years)
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
Since the NCAA changed the eligibility rules for the NCAA Tournament prior to the 1974-75 season, eliminating the one-team-per-conference limitation, North Carolina has defined March Madness at least as much as any other program.
In terms of quality, UNC has five NCAA titles (1982, 1993, 2005, 2009, 2017) in that period. Only UConn (six) has more, and only the Huskies, Duke (five), Kentucky (four), Indiana (three), Kansas (three), Louisville (three*) and Villanova (three) are in the same neighborhood.
In terms of quantity, Carolina also leads the way. The Tar Heels participated in 45 of the 49 NCAA Tournaments held from 1975-2024, missing only in 2002, 2003, 2010 and 2023. They also would have been left out in 2020, of course, after finishing 14-19, but the rapidly expanding COVID-19 pandemic cancelled almost everything in the sports world that spring.
Immediately after the 1974 rule change, coach Dean Smith led the Heels on a record-setting stretch of 23 consecutive NCAA Tournaments, a streak supplemented by the three-year Bill Guthridge era and the first season of Matt Doherty’s otherwise disastrous tenure as the head coach in Chapel Hill.
UNC’s 27-year run (1975-2001) of trips to the Big Dance remains the second-longest streak in NCAA history, behind only Kansas’ current run of 34 (soon 35) in a row. Even the Jayhawks’ stunning streak can be attributed, in part, to a Tar Heel; coach Roy Williams, who inherited a program on probation, quickly got KU rolling, with 14 straight NCAA trips from 1990-2003.
Fast forward to 2025. Entering their final five games of the regular season, this year’s Tar Heels (16-11, 9-6 ACC) find themselves in a relatively unfamiliar place for the second time in the last three years: squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Although each projection depends on the bracketologist surveyed, Carolina generally is considered — in the “if the season ended today” hypothetical — among the “First Four Out.”
While it’s true that the Tar Heels haven’t lost a single game to a truly inferior opponent this season, it’s also true that their best wins have come against UCLA, SMU and Pitt. While the Bruins are a virtual lock to make the NCAA Tournament, the Mustangs and Panthers are — at best — bubble teams themselves.
Did you know that UNC is only 1-10 in so-called Quad One games? Those are the high-caliber contests in which a team is facing a top-30 opponent (in the NCAA’s NET rankings) at home, a top-50 opponent on a neutral court, or a top-75 opponent on the road.
“I don’t look at that stuff,” fourth-year UNC coach Hubert Davis said. “Our focus is on what we can control, and that’s trying to win games and trying to become a better team every day.”
Obviously, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will be looking at “that stuff,” especially on March 16, otherwise known as Selection Sunday. That’s now less than one month away.
With Selection Sunday in mind, here are the Tar Heels’ three possible paths to an NCAA berth, with #3 the most likely:
#1. Win the ACC Tournament. This is the proverbial sure thing. Automatic NCAA Tournament bids go to conference tournament champions.
Historically, top-four seeds have won 62 of the 70 ACC Tournaments, or about 89 percent. At 9-6, the Tar Heels are only sixth in the league standings, behind Duke (15-1), Clemson (13-2), Louisville (13-2), SMU (11-4) and Wake Forest (11-4), so they are unlikely to finish in the top four this time. That accomplishment allows a team to skip the event’s first two days.
On the other hand, the two greatest examples (numerically) of lower seeds winning the ACC Tournament — #7 Virginia Tech in 2022 and #10 NC State in 2024 — both occurred within the past three years, so it’s certainly accurate to say that much stranger things have happened, even recently.
#2. Beat Duke on March 8. Obviously, this potential path won’t be easy, either.
Everyone has heard the old saying in these rivalry situations: “Throw out the records.” Well, not exactly. Since 1960, when the Carolina-Duke game has matched an unranked team against a ranked team, the ranked teams are 61-16, meaning they’ve won about 80 percent of the time.
Earlier this month, when the unranked Tar Heels took on then-#2 Duke in Durham, they were embarrassed. The Devils led 47-25 at halftime before coasting to an 87-70 victory.
Now the Blue Devils are 23-3 and #3 in the national rankings. They are 19-1 in their last 20 games, losing only once — at Clemson — since November. They have a likely #1 overall NBA draft pick in sensational forward Cooper Flagg, who may be on his way to joining Texas forward Kevin Durant (2007), Kentucky center Anthony Davis (2012) and Duke forward Zion Williamson (2019) as the only college freshmen ever to be named the National Player of the Year.
Could it happen? Sure. As a player, in 1990, Davis helped UNC (unranked in both games) to a shocking regular-season sweep of Duke (ranked in both games). As a head coach, in 2022, Davis led the Tar Heels (unranked in both games) to unforgettable back-to-back victories over the top-10 Blue Devils of coach Mike Krzyzewski, who retired soon after falling to Carolina in both his final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium and — almost a month later — at the Final Four.
#3. Win “enough” and hope. This path clearly remains within reach.
If Carolina can go 4-0 down the stretch against Virginia, Florida State (away), Miami and Virginia Tech (away) but loses to Duke, it will carry a 20-12 record to Charlotte for the ACC Tournament. That would leave the Tar Heels firmly in the NCAA bubble conversation.
At that point, any win for the Tar Heels over an NCAA Tournament-caliber team (i.e., Duke, Clemson, Louisville) would help their cause a lot, any victory over a fellow bubble team (perhaps Wake Forest, SMU and/or Pitt) would help a little, and of course any upset of the Blue Devils likely would seal the deal.
Meanwhile, just in case the Selection Committee’s final at-large selections come down to splitting hairs, Carolina fans can root for other things, too.
For example, every significant UCLA victory (the Bruins visit #13 Purdue on Feb. 28) will make UNC’s current “best win” look even better. Every major SMU and Pitt victory down the stretch will help the Tar Heels, too — unless, of course, one of those teams ends up being Carolina’s competition for the Big Dance’s final at-large spot.
These are among the crazy rules of the precarious NCAA Tournament bubble.
If the Tar Heels are going to rise above such things, they have less than one month to do it.
