Although April Fools’ Day has come and gone, it remains wise to be extra-cautious about what’s real and what’s not.

That same principle has been a necessity for Carolina basketball fans virtually every day since UNC’s 2025-26 season ended March 19, when VCU came back from 19 points down to post a shocking 82-78 overtime victory over the Tar Heels in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Ever since March 24, when UNC announced the end of the five-year Hubert Davis era, there has been rampant speculation about “who’s next” in Chapel Hill — that’s always been the case with the coaching carousel — as well as countless “reports” claiming inside information on this candidate or that.

On a single day, prior to April 1, there were separate social media posts insisting that (fill-in-the-blank) was poised to become the next leader of the Tar Heels. One post specified Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd. Another pointed to Michigan coach Dusty May. Yet another insisted it will be Chicago Bulls coach Billy Donovan. Still others pointed to former UNC star Jerry Stackhouse or even 73-year-old St. John’s coach Rick Pitino. Hah!

None of those conflicting claims was followed by an April Fools-style disclaimer. Such is the nature of modern social media (and some online media), where clicks and engagement come with significant financial incentives, often regardless of the accuracy — or inanity — of the underlying information.

With these rising tidal waves of disinformation and misinformation in mind, now seems a good time for a big-picture reality check in Chapel Hill.

It starts with the modern NBA and NCAA basketball calendars. The latter has changed truly every year in the post-COVID era, which has brought the arrival of Name-Image-Likeness money (2021), the explosion of immediately eligible transfers (gradual) and the debut of university revenue-sharing with athletes (2025).

Saturday, April 4 — Final Four games
Monday, April 6 — NCAA title game
Tuesday, April 7 — NCAA transfer portal opens
Sunday, April 12 — NBA regular season ends

It is impossible to overstate the importance of the modern-day transfer portal.

Among this year’s Sweet 16 teams, only one (Michigan State) had an entire starting lineup of players who began their college careers at that school. Among the Final Four participants, Michigan’s starting five has a whopping 80 percent “portal portion,” including transfers from UNC (point guard Elliot Cadeau), UAB, Texas Tech and UCLA.

In the Atlantic Coast Conference this season, whereas top-ranked Duke relied mainly on its high school and international signees, every other contender — including UNC — leaned heavily on additions from the portal.

At runner-up Virginia, the nine-man rotation of first-year coach Ryan Odom consisted of six major college transfers, two international prospects and one high school signee. At Clemson, six of Brad Brownell‘s top eight players came from last year’s transfer portal. At Carolina, it was five of the top eight, led by All-ACC center Henri Veesaar, formerly of Arizona.

Third-place Miami, under first-year coach Jai Lucas, may have provided the most dramatic example of both the importance of the transfer portal and the extremely time-sensitive nature of handling it in an intelligent, productive manner.

The most obvious impact of the portal on Lucas’ immediate success with the Hurricanes came with his starting lineup. Soon after taking the UM job, Lucas lured Indiana forward Malik Reneau and Michigan point guard Tre Donaldson to Coral Gables; good players in the Big Ten, Reneau and Donaldson became great players in the ACC, with each earning all-conference honors. Starting center Ernest Udeh (TCU) and starting guard Tru Washington (New Mexico) were very valuable contributors for the Canes, too.

The less obvious aspect of Lucas’ Year One success story — Miami’s improvement from a 7-24 record in 2024-25 to 26-9 in 2025-26 tied the largest one-year win-total jump (19) in Division One history — came with the thoughtfully orchestrated timing of his hiring.

In 2025, the NCAA transfer portal opened March 24, in the midst of the NCAA Tournament. As a long-time assistant coach at Texas, Kentucky and Duke, Lucas understood that getting a head start on the transfer circuit was an absolute prerequisite to having a strong debut at Miami.

With that in mind, Lucas made the unconventional decision to leave Duke at the conclusion of the 2024-25 regular season, even though the Blue Devils were among the favorites for the ACC championship (which they won) and the national championship (they made the Final Four).

Miami announced Lucas’ hiring on March 6, more than two weeks before the opening of last year’s 30-day transfer portal window.

“Nobody wants to work toward a goal for 11 months, then leave right before you get to March Madness, which is the best part. Duke was my family for three years, and of course I would have liked to be a part of another ACC championship and the Final Four,” Lucas said. “But I knew that, to maximize our chances of success in our first year at Miami, we had to have a detailed plan in place for the transfer portal long before it officially opened.

“It’s impossible to be a successful coach without the right players, and obviously we were building a roster basically from scratch at Miami.”

Therein lies the conundrum for UNC chancellor Lee Roberts (pictured above), rotating athletic directors Bubba Cunningham and Steve Newmark, and the university’s other key decision-makers.

Everyone agrees that the most important goal in any coaching search is landing the best person for the job. In this case, however, UNC clearly is being forced to wait for its #1 target, whether that’s someone still coaching at the Final Four (i.e., Lloyd or May) or someone still coaching in the NBA (e.g., Donovan).

Otherwise, the new coach already would be in place, especially with the April 7 opening of the transfer window in mind. Although NCAA tampering rules are designed to prevent contact between coaches and most players prior to April 7 (players whose head coach has departed can begin the process earlier), in practice a huge percentage of the top transfers either already have a short list of finalists or already have selected their destination by the time the portal officially opens.

If UNC already (privately) has its man, there’s no doubt that a preliminary portal plan is already in place. Davis’ three high school signees/commitments and 2025-26 players with remaining eligibility, plus any potential transfer and international targets, can be asked to wait for an official announcement of the new Carolina coach before they finalize their college decisions for 2026-27.

If UNC doesn’t yet have a firm “yes” from any of its top targets, the Tar Heels would be wise to move very quickly with its backup plan. Otherwise, the university’s ongoing timetable could sabotage the new coach’s first season in Chapel Hill.

Especially after April Fools’ Day, that’s no joking matter.