Few Carolina Football Coaches
Have Started Strongly In ACC Era
By David Glenn
North Carolina Sports Network
When legendary gridiron leader Bill Belichick takes the field for the first time as North Carolina’s head coach, he almost certainly will be an underdog, perhaps even in multiple ways.
With UNC’s 2025 opener against TCU at a sold-out Kenan Stadium now just a few weeks away, the Horned Frogs are considered a three-point favorite by most oddsmakers. ESPN’s game simulator gives the Tar Heels a 42 percent chance of posting what would be a mild upset.
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has had three-plus years to build his program, and the Horned Frogs’ average record on his watch is an impressive 9-4. In 2022, during Dykes’ debut campaign, they went 13-2 and played in the national championship game. They finished 9-4 a year ago.
Belichick, of course, has had only about eight months to build his first UNC team. That stretch has included the highest roster turnover rate in the modern history of the program, with nearly two-thirds of Carolina’s players arriving either in January or this spring/summer.
“We have 70 new players,” Belichick said. “That’s a lot of people and a lot of turnover. … There are a lot of new people there. When you combine all the scouting, support and player transition into the program, it’s a lot.”
Belichick also is plenty aware, even during August camp, that at least one of UNC’s midseason opponents will be a prohibitive favorite over the Tar Heels.
Clemson, which has claimed two national championships and nine Atlantic Coast Conference titles under coach Dabo Swinney, will visit Kenan Stadium on Oct. 4. The Tigers have posted 14 consecutive top-25 finishes and are considered among the favorites this season for another trip to the College Football Playoff.
“I have a ton of respect for Dabo and what he’s done,” Belichick said. “Great opportunity to spend some time with him at the ACC coaches’ meetings.
“He’s always been a really enjoyable guy to be around. I don’t know if that will be true on Saturday afternoon. Probably not.”
The TCU and Clemson matchups, along with a level of roster attrition more than twice what Belichick typically experienced (25-30 percent) in the National Football League, are among the biggest reasons most oddsmakers long ago set UNC’s over/under win total for 2025 at only 7.5.
For months now, a large majority of bettors have put their money on the “under,” meaning they believe the Tar Heels will win seven or fewer contests during their upcoming 12-game regular season.
Interestingly, if Belichick somehow can prove the “over” bettors right by winning eight or more games against an otherwise manageable schedule, he may be able to claim the unofficial title of “Greatest Debut Season” in UNC football history.
The competition for that particular tag is underwhelming.
Among the Tar Heels’ 12 previous head coaches during the ACC era (1953-present), only two won eight games during his initial campaign: John Bunting in 2001, and Larry Fedora in 2012. Jim Hickey (1959), Bunting and Fedora are the only head coaches who posted a winning record in ACC play during their initial season in Chapel Hill.
Neither Bunting’s 8-5 effort (which ended with a Peach Bowl victory over Auburn) nor Fedora’s 8-4 campaign (UNC was ineligible for postseason play that year) concluded with Carolina ranked in the Top 25 of either of the major polls.
Even a relatively modest accomplishment such as a Top-25 finish has proven to be an extremely elusive bar for the Tar Heels since the latter part of the 20th century. After five such achievements in a six-year period (1992-97) under Mack Brown, they have ended there only twice in the past 27 seasons — #15 under Fedora in 2015 and #17/#18 under Brown in 2020.
For now, of course, Belichick is focused only on today, and each day’s influence on his much-anticipated Chapel Hill debut.
“The big thing for us is just stacking good training days one on top of another, one at a time, and being ready to go,” Belichick said, “not only for the opener, but for the entire regular season and the ACC schedule.
“That’s our outlook. Just put good days together, take advantage of every opportunity, don’t let any days go by where we don’t continue to improve, get better, and get closer to becoming the most consistent and best football team we can be when we step out on to the field.
“That’ll hopefully continue every week, that we’ll continue to improve as a team, all the way through the course of the season.”
Head Coaching Debut Seasons (ACC Era Only)
Coach, Year—Record (ACC), Postseason Top 25?
Mack Brown, 2019—7-6 (4-4), No
Larry Fedora, 2012—8-4 (5-3), No
Everett Withers, 2011—7-6 (3-5), No
Butch Davis, 2007—4-8 (3-5), No
John Bunting, 2001—8-5 (5-3), No
Carl Torbush, 1998—7-5 (4-4), No
Mack Brown, 1988—1-10 (1-6), No
Dick Crum, 1978—5-6 (3-3), No
Bill Dooley, 1967—2-8 (2-5), No
Jim Hickey, 1959—5-5 (5-2), No
Jim Tatum, 1956—2-7-1 (2-3-1), No
George Barclay, 1953—4-6 (2-3), No
